“Taking into account the persistence of the budget deficit at historically high levels, i.e. more than 72 billion dirhams in 2022, after 71 billion dirhams in 2021 and 83 billion dirhams in 2020, the Treasury debt should continue its upward trend in 2022 to reach 960 billion dirhams, against 886 billion dirhams in 2022″, underlines AGR in its “Budget Focus” note for the month of March 2022.
The domestic debt should reach 731 billion dirhams in 2022, up +7.7% compared to its level observed at the end of 2021, and the external debt should increase by +9.9%, from 208 billion dirhams in 2021 to 229 billion dirhams. in 2022, says AGR.
At the end of March 2022E, the overall debt would have reached 906 billion dirhams, adds AGR, noting that the domestic component is estimated at 698 billion dirhams against 209 billion dirhams for the external component.
The weight of the external debt in the overall indebtedness of the Treasury continues to evolve around 23% at the end of March 2022, and should reach 24% at the end of the year. A level that remains lower than its reference benchmark, i.e. 25%. Nevertheless, this threshold remains higher compared to the average observed during the pre-crisis period 2017-2019 of 21.4%.
In addition, AGR indicates that given the unfavorable weather conditions and the repercussions of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the growth forecast for 2022 has been revised downwards, impacting Treasury debt ratios upwards. Total Treasury debt is expected to exceed the 80% of GDP threshold in 2022, according to AGR estimates. The domestic component is estimated at 61.4% and the external component at 19.2%. The Treasury would already be indebted to the tune of 76.1% of GDP at the end of March 2022. Domestic debt should stand at 58.6% of GDP in March 2022 against 58.0% at the end of 2021.
For its part, the external debt ratio should stand at 17.5% over the same period, down slightly from its level in 2021, i.e. 17.8%.