2023-10-02 23:54:22
Pedro Benítez (ALN).- The only fundamental difference between the Nicolás Maduro of 2013 and this 2023 is that he is already known. Their tactics, style and purposes; but above all for its results. The consequences of his time in power. “By their fruits you will know them” (Matthew 7:16).
In that sense, the fundamental political question that must be asked today about Venezuela, the central question on which every analysis must revolve, any decision to be considered, legitimate personal aspiration or partisan rivalry; beyond any other reasonable doubt, controversy, distraction or competing point of view; Going to the bottom of the matter, it is: What will become of this country if Maduro remains in power for six more years?
Without falling into the immediatisms that have done so much damage to the Venezuelan opposition, without resorting to the “Chávez go away now” / “Maduro go away now”, that is, however, an inevitable question. In fact, it is the question under which millions of Venezuelans have made one of the most difficult decisions anyone can make: leaving their home.
The reasons are well known, but it is worth remembering a few to illustrate this point. Maduro’s is the worst administration that Latin America can remember. His case as ruler can no longer be compared with the Castro dictatorship, because he took the country to a lower level: to the Haiti of the Duvaliers.
Under Maduro, the American continent’s main oil exporter sank into misery. Its economy is a quarter of what it was in 2012; seven and a half million Venezuelans have emigrated (the human hemorrhage does not stop); 60% of the population fell into extreme poverty (hunger) and almost 90% below the general poverty line. Venezuela is the only member of Opec where hyperinflation has broken out, something that economists never believed possible. The minimum wage today is less than 6 dollars a day.
Maduro certainly inherited, along with power, a super time bomb in macroeconomic terms. During the years 2011 and 2012, the Chavista regime incurred fiscal deficits of 18 points of GDP and massive external debt to create the sensation of consumer bonanza that would ensure re-election for a man who, it was known, would not be able to complete his presidential term. . In his megalomania, Hugo Chávez wanted to go undefeated to the other world.
The entire Venezuelan petrostate moved in the 2012 electoral campaign against the candidate of the opposition unit Henrique Capriles. It was the largest exercise in populism ever carried out in the region of the world characterized precisely by its populism.
Even then, the price of $100 per barrel of Venezuelan oil on the world market was not enough to cover the massive subsidies for food, gasoline and public services. as well as the delivery without compensation or personal effort by the beneficiaries of apartments, cars, white goods, cheap dollars, etc.
In fact, according to the data that at that time could be consulted on the websites of the Central Bank (BCV) and the National Institute of Statistics (INE), all economic and social indicators began to deteriorate rapidly since October 2012, the month of Chávez’s re-election.
In February 2013, Maduro, as acting president, authorized his first devaluation of the bolivar. Evidently a colossal crisis was coming. Incidentally, global oil prices plummeted between 2015 and 2017. And then, financial sanctions arrived that last year and trade sanctions in 2019. But none of this can explain the level of destruction that Venezuela has suffered under its power.
Iran has been the object of sanctions imposed by Western powers, led by the United States, for decades, and in that nation there are no lines to fill the vehicle fleet with gasoline, there has been no food shortage, nor has hyperinflation been unleashed. In fact, it was allowed to send shipments of gasoline to an ally located on the other side of the world.
It was only enough for price and exchange controls, as well as imports, to be released, and the hostility against the private sector to cease, for the shortage to end and the Venezuelan economy to breathe. Right in the middle of the sanctions.
We must not underestimate the economic turnaround, imposed by circumstances, it is true, that the Government has taken. However, other than that, what has been seen in the last two years is an administration of mediocrity. Although they have been explained in every possible way and Chinese officials have been offering their advice for years, Maduro and his people have not undertaken a major economic reform towards the free market like the one they or the comrades of the glorious party began in 1978. communist Vietnam in 1986.
Venezuela remains mired in a chronic gasoline shortage, with daily electricity service outages, widespread malnutrition, paralyzed public schools and the highest inflation in the world.
Very few, if not anyone, believe that, if he remained in power until 2030 or 2036, the country would have a miraculous economic recovery. The most rationally optimistic thing you can be, in that scenario, is to continue as we are going or a little better. Maduro makes no effort to change that perception.
The arrival of Joe Biden to the White House in 2021 was an opportunity that he has squandered in the endless game of small maneuvers aimed at keeping the hated opposition divided. Juan Guaidó had to be taken out of circulation and months passed. With the new president in the United States he was able to reach an agreement by delivering what he asked for; the freedom of all political prisoners, the electoral conditions requested by the opposition, etc. All in exchange for one thing: that the presidential elections would be set for the end of 2024. With that time frame (2021, 2022, 2023 and all of 2024) he could have carried out a profound economic reform, brought down inflation, recovered private investment, and now the opposition, with all the qualified candidates, would have an uphill battle..
In that sense, US sanctions have not been an insurmountable obstacle. With serious reforms underway, the Chinese government would have its hands full in Venezuela, because what it does not want to do is throw money at a loss.
Brother Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 was another out of the blue opportunity. On the other hand, with the price of a barrel of oil heading towards 100 dollars, the president who dominates the country with the largest hydrocarbon reserves on the planet is begging for a few billion to borrow while in neighboring Guyana the oil companies are lining up to invest. .
Chavismo, following the example of its Castro mastersdoes not know how to do anything other than wallow in the mud of his own failure.
Maduro has an immediate vision. For ten years their strategy has consisted of dawning in Miraflores next week. One day at a time. As long as it comes we will see. Since that has worked for her, she sees no reason to change it.
Even the prans of the Tocorón prison did a longer-term management. Humanity has had many despots and tyrants, but there were many who worried, for obviously selfish reasons, about leaving the territory they dominated a little better.
Now that the Venezuelan opposition “arrives at the point” in which (once again) it has to make crucial decisions, it is well worth it, first of all, to ask itself, without falling into hysterics, fantasies, or waiting miracles about liberating international alliances: What will become of Venezuela if Maduro remains in power for six more years?
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