The Effectiveness and Costs of Ukraine’s Counter-Offensive: A Critical Analysis

2023-07-06 05:32:27

The counter-offensive of the Ukrainian army does not satisfy Western opinion and impatience is heard with questions about the usefulness of the war effort knowing the significant cost in money and especially in human lives.

This is not “Russian propaganda”, but sounding bells emitted by Western media quoting officials. The latest is an article in the German newspaper Berliner Zeitung which, in its Monday edition, expressed serious doubts about the effectiveness and usefulness of the counter-offensive. Under the headline “Ukraine Loses War Material: So Many Leopard 2s Reportedly Destroyed So Far”, the article argues that “Ukraine suffers notable military losses during its now lasting counter-offensive since three weeks ago. Among other things, a number of Leopard 2 tanks were lost”.

Citing US business magazine Forbes, the Berliner Zeitung reports that the June 8 attack by Ukrainians on a Russian minefield south of Mala Tokmashka was particularly costly. The information given in the conditional indicates that in a few minutes the 33rd Mechanized Brigade and the 47th Assault Brigade of Ukraine would have lost three Leopard 2A6 tanks, 16 M-2 infantry fighting vehicles and three Leopard 2 engineer vehicles R.

According to the Dutch platform “Oryx” which documents the loss of war material on both sides, about 13% of the main battle tanks have been destroyed so far on the Ukrainian side, knowing that a total of 54 Leopard 2 battle tanks have so far been provided by Germany, Canada, Spain, Norway, and Poland.

The author of the article does not hesitate to set these facts in their context and to reveal the contrast between the hopes placed on one side by the West in the counter-offensive and the whole investment alongside Ukrainians, and on another the reality of things after a few weeks.

He writes: “With great expectations, Western states have supplied main battle tanks and armored personnel carriers to Ukraine, in the hope that the use of these war machines could bring significant gains. on the territory. About a month into Ukraine’s summer offensive, there’s a bit of disillusionment.”

“Sobering” results

Both Kiev and its Western allies had bet on deploying these third-generation German-made battle tanks to achieve decisive battlefield advantages in the counter-offensive launched a month ago.

But it turns out that their disuse makes them vulnerable to the Russian adversary, which adds to many other disappointments. This cost lives and money, comments the Berliner Zeitung, recalling that in 2023, the German government granted around 5.4 billion euros to militarily support Ukraine.

A very generous envelope which is added to the two billion euros in 2022, and commitment appropriations of around 10.5 billion euros for the years to come.

The journalist’s remark is clearly intended to make the German government think twice before giving in to the wishes of the Ukrainian army which, through its deputy foreign minister, Andriy Melnyk, asked two weeks ago to Berlin to send more combat vehicles.

Germany ranks second among NATO countries supplying arms to support the Ukrainian war effort, in addition to the presence of military vehicle manufacturer Rheinmetall in the country.

Rheinmetall factories are also engaged for the delivery of 14 additional Leopard-2 combat tanks. Contract signed in June and funded by Denmark and the Netherlands, according to the business daily Handelsblatt, citing NATO sources. A few weeks earlier, the British had decided to deliver long-range Storm Shadow missiles to kyiv.

Measure described as “extremely hostile” by Moscow, which accused London of “aiming to further flood Ukraine with weapons and to cause a serious aggravation of the situation”. The ineffectiveness of this military equipment in the hands of the Ukrainian armed forces is costing the West dearly, which is struggling to hide its disappointment.

Representatives of the Biden administration have said they view the results of the first two weeks of the Ukrainian counteroffensive as “sobering.” Trend confirmed by the American media Bloomberg, according to which the West has recognized the substantial losses of Ukraine.

Meanwhile, the Politico newspaper, citing administration sources in Washington, said additional aid to kyiv would depend on the success of the counteroffensive.

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