Last year, the global notebook shipments rewrote a new milestone. According to statistics, the shipments of the five major foundries in the fourth quarter of last year were the first time that the shipments of notebooks exceeded 50 million units in a single quarter, reaching approximately 52.2 million units, with a quarterly increase of 9% and an annual increase of 5%. Reflecting the improvement in supply chain conditions, Quanta (2382-TW), Compal (2324-TW) believes that with the improvement of the material situation, deferred orders are expected to be shipped one after another, which will boost the shipment of notebook computers in the first quarter of this year.
After the peak season for assembly factories at the end of the year, the first quarter has entered a traditional low season. In addition, the Lunar New Year will affect the number of working days. In the past, the average quarterly decline in notebook shipments fell by 15-20%. In the past two years, the epidemic has disrupted and disrupted the situation. The pace of production, however, the industry believes that as companies have experience in fighting the epidemic, the industry will return to normal seasonal demand this year.
Quanta, the world’s largest notebook foundry, has a higher proportion of consumer models than its peers, and its notebook shipments declined by about 20% in the first quarter of last year. However, due to the supply chain situation since the second half of last year, some orders have been delayed. Regarding the shipment situation, Quanta pointed out that some unmet orders will be deferred to shipment this quarter, and it is expected that the decline in notebook shipments will be smaller than in previous years. In the future, we will also pay attention to the impact of freight logistics congestion in ports and variant viruses.
Compal also believes that notebook shipments will still decline due to seasonal factors this quarter, but considering the delayed shipments of some orders and the still strong demand for commercial models, it is estimated that the overall notebook shipments will still be 13.1 million units compared to the same period last year. , the annual increase is less than 10%, and the quarterly decrease is also expected to converge to 10-20%.
In addition to Quanta and Compal, Wistron (3231-TW), Inventec (2356-TW), Pegatron (4938-TW) The momentum of shipments in the first quarter is also not bearish. Inventec believes that, given the continuous improvement in material conditions and the effect of deferred orders, operations in this quarter will not be sluggish in the off-season. Over 20%, it has converged to 10-15%. Wistron also estimates that notebook shipments will maintain year-on-year growth in this quarter.