The Guardian: Putin still believes he will win the war in Ukraine

The Russian president is believed to be more optimistic than a year ago, as the United States still failed to approve a $60 billion loan. dollar military aid package and recently achieved minor battlefield gains, capturing the town of Avdijivka.

“We do not believe that Russia has abandoned its maximalist goals of subjugating Ukraine,” the officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity, a day after Putin told his defense minister to press ahead with the offensive after a costly victory.

Russian leader Sergei Shoigu has been instructed to build on the assault on Avdiyivka, which was captured last weekend after four months of fighting that left Ukraine severely short of ammunition.

Experts estimate that Russia is five times ahead of Ukraine in the amount of ammunition fired along the entire front line.

According to one estimate, the fighting in Avdiyivka and elsewhere along the front line was costing the Russian army more than 1,000 killed and wounded a day. Russia’s usual daily death toll is believed to be close to 900.

However, according to officials, V. Putin does not have any clear medium-term strategy.

“We don’t think Russia has a meaningful plan other than to continue fighting in the hope that Russian manpower and equipment numbers will eventually pay off,” they said.

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine/Telegram/Ukrainian soldier

According to The Guardian, with minimal movement on the battlefield, Putin almost certainly expects the return to the White House of the unpredictable Donald Trump, a politician who sometimes praises the current Kremlin leader and who, according to recent reports, could freeze future aid to Ukraine. to force her to negotiate a peace settlement.

There are also signs that Russia’s intelligence services are regrouping after it emerged that a defector who had flown into Ukrainian territory by helicopter was shot dead in Spain. Although there is no evidence that Russia was behind the assassination, it is believed to be highly likely that it was a state-directed event, and any plot was likely the work of military intelligence.

Russia attacked Ukraine in 2022. February 24 early in the morning, and Putin called on the small country to “demilitarize and de-Nazify”, thus starting the biggest war in Europe since 1945. Russia’s initial effort to capture Kyiv failed, but as of 2023, despite early Ukrainian gains, the front lines have remained relatively static.

A previous US intelligence estimate put 315,000 Russian soldiers dead or wounded since the start of the war. Western intelligence does not regularly count Ukrainian casualties, but last summer one estimate put the figure at 170,000-190,000. people, and a total of more than half a million on both sides.

There are no active peace talks going on behind the scenes, and despite the increasingly debilitating conflict, it is not clear that either side is willing to change the situation. The leadership of Ukraine has repeatedly said that they want to restore by 2014. the country’s former borders, and Russia has declared that it opposes Ukraine joining NATO.

IMAGO/Scanpix/Russian soldiers

Officials said they believed the sanctions had “hit Russia’s military complex hard,” causing major delays and other costs for the country’s manufacturing as Moscow struggles to address a shortage of Western components that were common in its more advanced weaponry.

But the Kremlin has reoriented Russia to a war economy, increasing defense spending to 7.5 percent. GDP, and factories are working around the clock and hundreds of thousands of new jobs have been created despite Western sanctions.

Estonia estimates that Russia can produce 4.5 million tons this year. ammunition, and Europe is struggling to fulfill the goal of supplying 1 million of ammunition. No ammunition has been received from the US since early January, as the Republican-led House of Representatives refused to hold a debate on a foreign aid package that included $60 billion. dollars to Ukraine.

Nevertheless, Russia’s arms industry is under such pressure that the Kremlin is now “requisitioning military equipment that was originally intended for delivery to foreign partners,” officials said, essentially abandoning paid contracts.