2023-07-10 04:31:01
President Zelensky himself explained it a few weeks ago: to his liking, as well as to that of Western allies that Release described as “cautious“, the Ukrainian counter-offensive is “slower than expected”.
Territorial gains are made but they are very progressive and Russia, which has had time to organize a vast network of trenches and fortifications and to sift the occupied land with endless minefields, is progressing in its techniques and its defense, as an article from the Wall Street Journal on this supposed “slowness”.
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A “fragile” defense
And if this slowness was only apparent, tactically voluntary, temporary, and that a great blow of acceleration was preparing? Nothing and no one can of course predict the future, but some recent clues tend to show that the hypothesis, which certainly remains a hypothesis, is not completely preposterous.
As reported by theInstitute for the Study of War (ISW), whose analyzes are highly respected, and as related Newsweek, Russia would thus have been forced to move part of its defenses from eastern Ukraine to the south, particularly in the Zaporizhia region, where a very active part of the troop offensive is taking place. from Kyiv. This movement, explains the American institute, “suggests that Russian defenses in southern Ukraine are fragile”.
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“The Russian defenses in southern Ukraine, while strong, are not insurmountable”continues a situation update dated July 7. “Russian forces in southern Ukraine may have to withdraw to defensive positions without significant support from operational reserves if Ukrainian forces achieve a breakthrough.”
tipping point
In short: although they are still holding up rather well, the Russian defenses are approaching a breaking point and their gradual retreat towards the next lines of defense could prove catastrophic, for lack of men and equipment.
A few days ago, it was thus reported that Russia’s military might had been reduced to half of what it was before the attempted full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Its daily losses, in particular in precious pieces of artillery that Ukraine “hunts” actively, as explained Newsweekare colossal and cannot be replaced by a crisis-ridden defense industry.
It has thus been reported, in particular by Military Zonethat Moscow was reduced to sending T-54 tanks into combat – the production of these machines began at the end of the Second World War – or to using techniques learned at Daesh, like these old remote-controlled T-55s stuffed with explosives thrown at the tusks in yellow and blue.
Moreover, Ukraine benefits from formidable weapons to complicate the retreat of its enemies, “Remote Anti-Armor Mine System” (or RAAMS) provided by the United States, which GEO was talking about a few weeks ago and which allow the dissemination of explosive devices on the ground in the back of the enemy front lines, in order to make a possible retreat deadly.
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In addition, despite a legitimate outcry as the weapon has already proven deadly for civilian populations, Joe Biden’s decision to supply Kiev with cluster munitions may also help the country to break enemy lines. .
In times of ammunition shortage, Ukraine will thus get its hands on a new substantial stock of shells – very special shells, with terrifying power against troops or armored vehicles on the ground, but also very effective in clearing large areas. areas, so to enable faster progress.
A dyke ready to give way?
This thesis of a more effective counter-offensive than it seems to the media, leaders and Western populations in need of Hollywood action, as the “iron general” Valery Zaloujny explained a bit annoyed au Washington Postit is also the one that Guillaume Ancel holds in an article published on his blog Do not suffer, and summarized on Twitter.
According to him, the immense front of 1000 kilometers on which Ukrainians and Russians face each other “resembles a huge dyke being gradually brought to the brink of implosion”. Echoing the ISW, Guillaume Ancel explains that the Russians are withdrawn to their second line of defense, and that they are already committing significant reserves to defend them.
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“The Russian device is intensely “torn”, both in its length and in its width. It undergoes repeated blows while its supply capacity is reduced. It will soon be in a critical state, thus weakening the whole of the device “he writes.
A (double) question of time
He rightly notes in passing that intense undermining, carried out by numerous deep strikes on Russian logistics hotspots, had also been underway for weeks on the Ukrainian side, as recently reported. Newsweek in particular, and as shown by the example, among others, of the ammunition depot at Makiivka, told by the New York Timesor that of the strike on Rykove.
The forehead in #Ukraine looks like a huge dam gradually brought to the brink of implosionhttps://t.co/fIA4teVIGG
— Guillaume ANCEL ???? (@guillaume_ancel) July 8, 2023
1/n #GuerreEnUkraine D+499 (07/07) PoS2 – Sectors #Louhansk,#Siversk,#Avdiivka & front ????????
The offensive ???????? gradually unfolds its effects (breakout strategy) but does ???????? have all its time?
Cluster bombs ????????for????????????pic.twitter.com/0uEn4YIUAL
— Macette Escortert (@escortert) July 7, 2023
“The question now is when will this Russian device and its reserves be shaken enough to be broken through”, continues Guillaume Ancel in his blog post. Before asking the ultimate question: does Kiev still have enough time before it so that its thrusts do not end up translating into sudden, and perhaps unstoppable, breakthroughs.
“It’s a matter of weeks or maybe months while the Ukrainians only have reserves to attack until next September. When this dyke gives way, the front will be overwhelmed, but will it give way in time? “writes the former officer.
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