2023-08-17 18:28:50
The Russian Central Bank raised its key rate from 8.5% to 12% on Tuesday, worried about the fall of the ruble and a possible resumption of inflation. YURI KADOBNOV / AFP
DECRYPTION – The sharp drop in the ruble surprised Moscow, despite continued weakness in recent months. The weakness of the currency plunges the country a little more into uncertainty.
«Why on earth does the exchange rate fluctuate like that, so that everyone laughs abroad?“. Vladimir Solovyov, the star host of the Russian show Moscow. Kremlin. Poutine, himself is no longer in a joking mood. This diatribe pronounced last Thursday – that is to say a few days before the collapse of the rouble – testifies well to the disorder which seized the fatherland of the Tsars. On Monday, the Russian currency exceeded the symbolic cap of 100 rubles for one dollar, and 110 rubles for one euro. We have to go back to February 2022, i.e. to the beginnings of the military offensive in Ukraine, to find such a low rate.
In response, the Russian central bank had no choice but to raise its key rate from 8.5% to 12% on Tuesday. The currency has since recovered, trading at 94.25 rubles to the dollar and 102.4 rubles to the euro on Thursday night. Despite this, economic observers remain skeptical. “It is unlikely that the change in the key rate will have a lasting influence on the rate of the ruble“Argued Alfa Bank analysts on Wednesday, referring to the volumes”boundariescurrently traded on the foreign exchange market in Russia.
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Would the Westerners have succeeded in their bet of putting the ruble “in ruins“, according to the words of the American president, Joe Biden, in March 2022? One thing is certain, we are a long way from the time when, in the aftermath of the military intervention in Ukraine, economists wondered about the astonishing robustness of the Russian currency. In March 2022, the Russian ruble had reached record highs against the greenback, exceeding 140 rubles per dollar. The decline in Russian imports, coupled with a high…
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