2024-01-16 17:58:49
Experts and analysts agree that if Trump returns to power in 2024, this will have a major impact on the Middle East, especially on the countries of the Gulf region. How do these countries, led by Saudi Arabia, view this possible scenario? What are the new changes that will occur to the potential new American administration in its Middle East policy? Or have the Arab countries finally turned the page on Trump and invested in other relations with new global players such as China, India and Russia? … analysis.
Published on: 01/16/2024 – 18:58
8 minutes
Follow up Arab countries In general andGulf countries In particular, the primary elections that American political parties have begun organizing to choose their candidate who will run in the next presidential elections scheduled for next November.
The first gathering was organized by him the Republican Party Monday in Central Iowa United State He called on his supporters in this agricultural region to choose who will represent it in the elections from among the three most prominent candidates. She is the former president Donald Trump Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former US Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley.
After a day of voting, the non-final results showed a victory Former President Donald Trump. The latter gave a “strong” speech in which he called for “unity.” Trump said, “I believe it is time for everyone to unite our country… whether they are Republicans, Democrats, liberals or conservatives.”
The importance of the primary elections is not limited to Americans only, but extends to the Arab countries, especially the Gulf ones, as they closely follow all the stages leading to determining the candidates of the Republican and Democratic Party who will compete next November, taking into account and in the balance the chances and possibility of the president’s return. Former Donald Trump will come to power if he overcomes the legal and judicial obstacles obstructing his candidacy.
“Trump’s re-election will not be a surprise for the Gulf countries.”
In light of the US primary elections in Iowa, several questions arise. The first is: Do the Gulf countries, led by Saudi Arabia, prefer Trump’s return to the White House, or do they want democratic rule to continue in the United States?
What do these countries expect from Trump if he returns to power, and is he the best president for them? Or did you turn the page on the American billionaire after building new and strategic relations with China and Russia in his absence in the framework of the so-called multipolar policy?
The answer is not easy for Hosni Obaidi, director of the Center for Studies on the Arab and Mediterranean World at the University of Geneva, who at least admitted that “Trump’s re-election will not come as a surprise to the countries of the Gulf region and Saudi Arabia in particular, given that these countries know him well, interacted with him, and worked with his administration during his first term.” . More than that, Obaidi believes that “the return of… Donald Trump To take power in the interest of the Middle East and the Gulf region.”
He said in a telephone interview with France 24: “Riyadh did not forget that the first visit that Trump made after his election was to Saudi Arabia and not to another country. It is also well aware that he does not care much about human rights issues, unlike Joe Biden and the Democrats, but rather focuses mainly on trade and always has his sights set on it.” “Economic interest.”
Read also: Trump describes Biden as the “worst” president of the United States and promises to “save America”
Obaidi continued: “Saudi Arabia has not forgotten Joe Biden’s statements in which he described the Saudi regime as a rogue regime. What actually made it move away from it a lot and strengthen its relations with Russia and China, as well as opening a new page with neighboring Iran.”
“The return of Trump STFueling US-Chinese rivalry over the Middle East
Regarding the question: Will Riyadh reconsider its relations with China if Trump comes to power again? “It is possible,” Abedi replied. He explained, “The relationship that Riyadh built with Beijing was in fact aimed only at showing the extent of the points of disagreement with the Joe Biden administration and the extent of its annoyance. This relationship was a small turning point in Riyadh’s foreign policy and not a profound strategic shift in its foreign policy. Therefore, we expect that in the event of a victory, Trump That Saudi Arabia and most Gulf states restore their relations with the United States as they were before.”
For its part, the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, a non-profit charitable organization that sheds light on US-Gulf relations, believes that there is much for Arab countries to hope for and worry about if Trump succeeds in being re-elected.
According to the analysis published by this institute by the Turkish political thinker Hashim Tfenç, quoted by the American magazine “National Interest”, if Trump returns to power, there are expectations that “his influence on diplomatic relations will become more complex due to the increasing competition between the United States and China” in many regions of the world and in Foremost among them is the Middle East region.
It is difficult to predict what Trump might do if he returns to the White House
Hashem Tafinch predicted that “Trump’s direct and provocative tone will push the countries of the Middle East and the Gulf to side with China. This threatens to inflame the conflict between Beijing and Washington and expand its scope.”
He continued: “In Trump’s potential second term, regional actors will be more accustomed to his style. Therefore, Middle Eastern leaders can deal more wisely during this potential second term. Firstly, they realize that Trump may not translate his words into actions, in addition to that they have gained greater experience in Regional diplomacy and negotiation since he left Former US President His position in 2021.
In this particular context, Wassim Al-Ahmar, international affairs editor at France 24, added that Trump’s allies in the region, by which he means the Middle East and the countries of the Gulf region, “have changed their vision and the nature of their relations with the United States, and that things are no longer viewed only in black or white, and they have become dependent on… A balance of power that did not necessarily exist in Trump’s first term.” He explained that one of the reasons for the fears expressed by these countries regarding Trump is their “inability to predict what he might do if he returns to the White House.”
“Trump’s return may push Saudi Arabia and other countries to normalize relations with Israel“
As for the Israeli-Palestinian file, according to Wassim Al-Ahmar, the extreme right in Israel is counting on Trump’s return to power “to continue the policies of war and settlement or at least ensure that there is no American disturbance,” adding that “with Trump, perhaps there will be reliance on annexing new lands.”
In the same file, Hosni Obeidi added, “If Trump returns to power, he will support Tel Aviv more in its plans. Moreover, there is the possibility that Saudi Arabia will normalize its relations with the Hebrew state, which may open the way for other countries that have so far been conservative about normalization, Such as Kuwait, Oman and other countries to follow Riyadh’s example.” This analyst concluded by saying that “Trump’s possible return to power will also serve Qatar’s geopolitical interests.”
Read also: Trump claims that the Saudi king’s survival in power depends on the support of the United States
Finally, what can be said, according to political analysts, is that if Trump’s second and potential term follows the pattern of the first, changes will inevitably occur in the Middle East. Starting with Iran, which the new American president is expected to work to isolate and break the relationship that Saudi Arabia has forged with the Islamic Republic. It is also likely that he will continue his support for Israel and Sisi by reducing pressure on the human rights file in this country.
As for the Gulf region, after Trump, in his first term, supported Saudi Arabia and the axis it formed to boycott Qatar in 2017, it is very expected, according to analysis, that the potential new American president will not repeat “the same mistake” given that Qatar has regained its position among the White House’s favorites, in addition to The complex economic and military interests that link Washington to Doha.
Donald Trump’s possible return to power will undoubtedly turn American foreign policy upside down again, according to expectations. While the only question remains: What limits will Trump adhere to?
Taher Hani
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