Not without skill, the junta which overthrew President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta on August 18, 2020, continues its political adventure at the top of the Malian state. Despite its promise made to its Western partners, France in the first place, and to the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) – all have demanded -, the government resulting from this putsch has just bury, unsurprisingly, the organization of general elections in February.
National foundations locked
The decision was announced by the Malian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Abdoulaye Diop, on public television: not only will the elections not be organized on the date demanded by ECOWAS and the Western countries, but in addition they will not have take place before five years. Abdoulaye Diop had informed the current president of ECOWAS, the Ghanaian Nana Akufo-Addo, the day before.
→ DEBATE. Do we need elections at all costs in countries at war?
This decision is in line with the conclusions of the National Refoundation Meeting which was held from December 11 to 30 in Mali and which had just recommended a transition lasting from six months to five years. Organized by the putschist regime, these “assizes” were presented as consultations prior to elections and the return of civilians to power in Mali.
Unsurprisingly, they took over what the Malian authorities had been warning both ECOWAS and Westerners for several weeks: their inability to organize presidential and legislative elections in February 2022, due to persistent insecurity in the country.
China and Russia, important counterweights
The sub-regional organization has not yet reacted to this junta’s announcement but it is due to meet for an extraordinary summit on Mali on January 9 in Accra (Ghana). On December 12, she threatened to take new sanctions against Mali if the Malian authorities did not commit to organizing the elections on February 27, 2022. Logically, therefore, she should condemn this extension and carry out its threat. Especially since it is under significant pressure in this direction from France, the European Union and the United States.
→ REPORT. Malians ready to rely on Russian paramilitaries
But, at the same time, other powers such as Algeria, Turkey, Russia and China are investing more and more in the sub-region, and are acting as a counterweight.
The powerlessness of ECOWAS
Since the coup d’état in August 2020, ECOWAS has shown how little it weighs in this issue. An impotence which was again revealed with more force on the occasion of the second coup d’etat of the junta, carried out on May 24, 2021. Despite its condemnations, the sub-regional organization was indeed obliged to endorse the choice of the junta. “Despite their declarations, Mali’s partners have little leverage to prevent the military from taking power over the long term if they try to do so”, already noted the International Crisis Group in September 2021. A finding which also seems to apply to Western partners like France which, for months, has not stopped raising its voice and taking some suspensive measures in military cooperation to restore them immediately after a symbolic delay.
Can France influence the junta in Mali?
Certainly, sanctions will be taken, as the administration of Joe Biden has just taken on Saturday, January 1. “The United States today excluded Ethiopia, Mali and Guinea from the Agoa trade preferences program (1) because of actions carried out by each of their governments in violation of the statutes ” of this agreement, said the US trade representation in a statement. But that will not change much on the ground, as the arrival in Mali of Russian mercenaries from the private company Wagner has just shown. Despite threats, condemnations and strong protests from Paris and the European Union.
.