2023-06-25 19:26:00
For decades, Sovietologists have racked their teeth trying to explain what was going on behind the gates of the Kremlin in Moscow. They came out of hazy theories that were contradicted a few weeks later by the facts. They bet on characters who disappeared into the gulags while others emerged like a rabbit from the hat of the communist leaders of the time.
Caution is therefore called for in interpreting the mutiny that shook Russia over the weekend. In the great tradition of dirty tricks in Russian politics, this one will be a milestone.
Facts ? The former mobster and cook from St. Petersburg, a longtime acquaintance of Vladimir Putin, tapped on the table. He attacked the command of the Russian army, and specifically Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who, in his view, refused him the necessary support for his Wagner militia to participate effectively in military operations in Ukraine. After less than 24 hours of invective and threats, Evgueni Prigojine suddenly softened, ordered his men to return to their camps and agreed to go into exile – briefly? – in Belarus.
If he really embarked on this mutiny alone, “either Prigozhin is already dead, or a cup of hot polonium tea awaits him in Minsk”
The Russian president was faced with a dilemma. He knows both men well. Both served the imperial plans of Russia, from Syria to Ukraine, including many African countries. So what to do? Discard one in favor of the other? Put both on the sidelines? This is where you enter the impenetrable in-house kitchen of the Russian elite.
Questions also arise about the fate of the Wagner militia, whose incorporation into the Russian army was demanded on June 10 by a decree from the Ministry of Defence.
The Biden administration believes the mutiny is a “direct challenge to Putin’s authority” and will have consequences. Because Prigojine said publicly that Russia was losing on the Ukrainian front “up to 1,000 men a day”, an unverifiable figure.
Therefore, we can fear that the Russian president will show more authoritarianism inside the country and will be tempted to further intensify the war he is waging against Ukraine. But that is speculation.
In Russia, a mutiny that lasted only 24 hours: the strange exit of the man who wanted to “go all the way”
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