2024-04-15 13:20:00
The long-term conflict between Iran and Israel did not turn into war this time – the parties checked their readiness. This conflict is situationally beneficial for Russia, but not in the long term, writes Pravda.Ru columnist Lyubov Stepushova.
The market, which “knows everything,” reacted weakly to Iran’s attack on Israel on Sunday, April 14. Gold and oil – almost no reaction. The price of gold is rising 0.8% to $2,379 per troy ounce, today’s trading data shows. At the same time, Brent is trading steadily at $90.4 per barrel, WTI at $85.6.
The conflict is frozen for a short time unless Israel responds to Iran within a week. Everything will be serious between them, but not now, but for now both sides have checked their combat readiness. What did Iran find out? An important psychological milestone has been passed – direct attacks on Israel are no longer taboo. There are patriots within Iran whose appetite for revenge has been satisfied. The coordination of the Iranian military structures that carried out the attack was verified. The military received valuable information by observing the work of Israeli and American air defense and air forces. Iran has a huge and, importantly, its own arsenal of missiles and drones. Iran is autonomous, has long been under sanctions and has adapted to them. He got time to improve his weapons. He can already make plans for a “hot” war, since Iran has access to the borders of Israel through its proxies in Iraq and Syria, and the outcome of the war is decided by the soldier who steps on enemy soil with his boot. Considering that Iran’s population is almost 90 million people, its army will be numerically superior to any enemy allied armies. Iran is convinced that the Russian Federation will support it in the UN Security Council, which means there will be no international sanctions.
What did Israel become convinced of? The Arab countries did not even twitch, but Jordan so directly became an ally of Israel, this is worth a lot, that is, the thesis about the hostile Arab encirclement of Israel has exhausted itself. Western countries sent their air forces and fulfilled allied obligations. The US Air Force destroyed more than 80 UAVs and at least six ballistic missiles fired towards Israel from Iran and Yemen, US Central Command (CENTCOM) reported. Israel’s air defense was in excellent condition. But Iran did not carry out strikes from Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, or from a closer distance from the Israeli borders. Moreover, when Tehran has its own nuclear bomb, all of Israel’s allies will no longer be so brave. Israel is strong as long as the US is strong, but everything is heading towards civil war there after the elections in November. Israel’s expenses turned out to be much greater than Iran’s. Tehran launched more than 170 UAVs, about 120 ballistic and about 30 cruise missiles, which were intercepted by Arrow and Patriot. IDF reserve general Ram Aminah stated that Israel spent about $1-1.3 billion to repel Iran’s attack. According to him, Iran’s attack costs are ten times less.
For Russia, the conflict in the Middle East is situationally beneficial, as it reduces Western aid to Ukraine and raises oil prices. Long-term disadvantages – a “hot” war will destroy both countries that hate each other, one of which is an ally of the Russian Federation, and the other fully supports Russia following the results of World War II. Israel is the only country in the West that does not allow an audit of its results.
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