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Spain has changed in the last two decades. The jihadist threat, too. Since 10 backpack bombs exploded on four Madrid commuter trains on March 11, 2004, killing 192 people and wounding nearly 2,000, security forces have carried out more than 400 operations against Islamist terrorism and arrested 1,049 suspected jihadists. The last one, last Wednesday in Melilla. But the profile of those detained has been evolving. Seven factors explain the changes.
The Qaeda of ISIS. Fernando Reinares, professor at the Rey Juan Carlos University, associate researcher at the Elcano Royal Institute and author of several books on 11-M, emphasizes that the terrorist structure that committed the Madrid attacks “had a direct connection with the Al Qaeda command ”, then hegemonic jihadist organization. Two decades later, the spotlight is taken over by the self-proclaimed Islamic State (ISIS). The members of the Ripoll cell, responsible for the attacks in Barcelona and Cambrils in 2017, were linked in Belgium to the foreign security apparatus of this group. In the last decade, more than 95% of the jihadists detected in Spain followed the tenets of ISIS, according to police estimates. However, experts in the fight against terrorism admit that sometimes these loyalties are confusing: “Cases of terrorists who consume and spread propaganda from different and even disparate organizations are not strange.”
Gaza to convince. The General of the Civil Guard Manuel Navarrete, director of the Intelligence Center against Terrorism and Organized Crime (CITCO, dependent on the Ministry of the Interior), highlights changes in the jihadist propaganda spread over the Internet, its great speaker at present: “The ISIS has used its terrorist attacks to attract new followers in its heyday, but now that they commit fewer, they use other decoys.” Which is it? “During the pandemic it was Covid, presented as a religious curse. Today, the burning of Korans in Sweden and Denmark, and the war in Gaza.” Navarrete adds that this latest conflict “has been instrumentalized by the jihadists to turn it into a war of religion” despite the fact that Hamas [la organización palestina que perpetró los ataques del 7 de octubre en Israel] It has a much more nationalist component.
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From immigrants to those grown up in Spain. For Reinares, “the main transformation” in these 20 years is in the profile of the terrorists. As in other European countries, they are still predominantly men, although they are increasingly younger. However, the substantial difference in Spain is that “this terrorism has stopped being carried out by first-generation immigrants and is carried out by their children, young people who have already been born or raised in Spain.” And he gives an example: “Of the 26 individuals who made up the network that committed the 11-M attacks, all but one [Rachid Aglif, que llegó con 14 años] They were first generation immigrants. In the Ripoll cell, in 2017, it was the other way around: only one [el imán Abdelbaki Es Satty] He could be considered a first generation immigrant. The rest were born, raised or socialized in Spain.”
The risk of returnees. The conflicts in Syria and Iraq added the figure of Foreign Terrorist Fighters (FTC) to the threat. CITCO specialists highlight that when they return to their countries of origin, their danger is twofold: “They have experience in handling weapons and explosives and, in addition, they are seen as heroes, which makes them powerful instruments of radicalization.” Other police sources also warn about “frustrated” combatants, that is, those who tried unsuccessfully to reach territories controlled by ISIS and who, after failure, may attempt attacks in their places of residence. CITCO statistics reflect that 272 jihadists have left Spain since 2015 to move to conflict zones (a relatively low figure compared to other countries such as France, with nearly 2,000; Germany, more than a thousand, or Belgium, above of half a thousand). Of them, at least 65 have returned to Europe and, of the rest, just over a hundred have died and a similar number remain in a conflict zone (mainly Syria or Iraq).
More women. “The Abu Dandah cell [desarticulada por la policía española en 2001 por su relación con los atentados del 11-S] He literally left the women in the kitchen when they got together. Now they have a more active role,” says a veteran police officer in the fight against terrorism. General Navarrete agrees: “It is true that women are acquiring an increasingly leading role. Although in Spain the majority is in logistical support, recruitment or financing, in other countries plans to attack have already been intervened.” According to a study by the Elcano Royal Institute, between 2001 and 2011 there were no women arrested in Spain for jihadism. Today they represent about 12% of arrests.
And more minors. Last year, eight minors were arrested for jihadism, according to the CITCO. Three of them had manuals for making explosives and plans to attack an “apostate.” So far in 2024, another minor who was finishing a homemade device has been arrested. “Jihadist propaganda is increasingly directed at minors,” says General Navarrete, who adds that they are recruited on gaming platforms. online and on social networks. Jihadist versions of war games such as the popular Call of Duty. The Elcano Royal Institute points out that those who began their radicalization when they were not yet of legal age have gone from representing 17.1% of those convicted or deceased in Spain between 2001 and 2011, to 23.4% between 2012 and 2023.
The focus of prisons. At the end of February there were 81 prisoners accused of jihadist terrorism in Spanish prisons. Added to them are the 38 inmates who entered prison for other crimes but have become radicalized inside, and also the 59 inmates who show signs of following the same steps, according to data from Penitentiary Institutions. In total, 178. According to the Elcano Royal Institute, 10.5% of the jihadists convicted or killed in Spain until October 2018 and who were totally or partially radicalized in Spain, did so in prison. At the end of last year, Penitentiary Institutions launched a new reintegration plan to which 17 jihadist inmates have signed up. However, a CITCO member emphasizes that recidivism is “low.” So far, seven prisoners who served time for jihadism in Spain have returned to prison for committing crimes. And, of them, two were for other crimes.
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