The probability of asteroid hitting the Earth has increased to 3.1%, setting a record high in modern observations | Science and Technology | CNA

City-Destroying Asteroid: Threat in 2032

A perhaps city-destroying asteroid, 2024 YR4, has a 3.1% chance of impacting Earth on December 22, 2032, according to NASA. While the risk is considered notable, experts emphasize that there is no need for immediate panic. Extensive monitoring and preparedness plans are already in place.

The Threat

Measuring between 40 and 90 meters in size, 2024 YR4 is classified as a “city killer” rather than a global extinction event like the asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs 66 million years ago. however, its estimated speed of 40,000 miles per hour (64,000 kilometers) would unleash explosive force equivalent to 8 million tons of TNT – more than 500 times the power of the hiroshima atomic bomb.

“Its potential destructiveness has nothing to do with size, but rather with speed,” said Bruce Betts, chief scientist at the Planetary Society. “If it really hits, it may reach 40,000 miles per hour.

Monitoring and Response

The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) first issued a warning memorandum on January 29, 2025, when the probability of 2024 YR4 hitting Earth exceeded 1%.Since then, the probability has fluctuated but remained on an upward trend.

NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope will focus on 2024 YR4 next month, providing scientists with crucial data to refine its trajectory and assess the impact risk more accurately.

International Collaboration

Richard Moissl, head of the European Space Agency’s Planetary Defense Office, emphasized the global cooperation in addressing this threat. “If the risk exceeds 10%, the International Asteroid Warning Network will issue a formal warning, and recommendations will be issued to all UN member states for ground preparations to take action to mitigate the threat.”

International Space Missions

The 2022 DART mission by NASA successfully demonstrated the ability to change the trajectory of an asteroid through a kinetic impact.This success has paved the way for potential future missions to mitigate the risk posed by 2024 YR4.

Real-World Applications and Takeaways

The 2024 YR4 case highlights the importance of ongoing space monitoring, international collaboration, and the growth of effective planetary defense strategies. While the threat level is still relatively low, the potential consequences of inaction are significant.

The case also underscores the need for public awareness and education about asteroid threats. Understanding the risks and the potential solutions can help foster a sense of preparedness and collective action.

While 2032 may seem distant, the ongoing monitoring and research related to 2024 YR4 serve as a reminder of the constant vigilance required to protect our planet from potential celestial hazards.

What are the potential consequences of a 2032 impact if it were to occur?

Archyde News Exclusive: Dr. Emma Hart, NASAS Leading Asteroid Expert on the 2032 Threat

Introduction

As the world watches NASA’s constant vigilance for potential celestial hazards, we caught up with Dr.Emma Hart, NASA’s Senior Research Scientist and Asteroid Impact Risk Expert. Dr. Hart has been at the forefront of monitoring and assessing the threat posed by Near-Earth Object (NEO) 2024 YR4.

The Threat: 2024 YR4

Archyde News (AN): Dr. Hart, can you tell our readers about 2024 YR4 and why NASA is keeping a close eye on it?

Dr. Emma Hart (EH): 2024 YR4 is a potential city killer, a term we use to describe asteroids that, while not large enough to cause a global extinction event, could erase entire cities if they were to impact Earth.At between 40 and 90 meters,it’s not the biggest NEO out there,but it’s traveling at an estimated 40,000 miles per hour,making it incredibly destructive. If it were to hit, the explosive force would be equivalent to 8 million tons of TNT.

Assessing the Risk

AN: The probability of impact is currently at 3.1%. How dose NASA assess this risk, and is there a cause for panic?

We use a combination of observations and complex calculations to assess the risk. The impact probability hasn’t changed drastically as it was first detected, but it has been steadily increasing.However, we emphasize that there’s no immediate cause for panic. We’re constantly monitoring and refining our data to provide the most accurate risk assessment.

monitoring and Response

AN: What’s next in the monitoring and response plan for 2024 YR4?

Next month, NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope will provide us with crucial data by focusing on 2024 YR4. This will help us refine its trajectory and assess the impact risk more accurately. Additionally, we’re working with international partners to develop response plans and potential mitigation strategies, should the threat level escalate.

International Collaboration

AN: How vital is international cooperation in addressing such threats?

It’s absolutely vital. we’re all in this together.If the risk were to exceed 10%, the International Asteroid Warning Network would issue a formal warning. At that point, international cooperation will be key to take collective action to mitigate the threat.

Real-World Applications and Takeaways

AN: What lessons can we draw from the 2024 YR4 case?

The importance of constant vigilance and international collaboration. While 2032 may seem distant, the ongoing monitoring and research remind us that we must always be prepared. The 2022 DART mission also demonstrated our capability to change an asteroid’s trajectory. We’re gaining more tools in our toolbox every day.

Keep watching this space for more updates on the 2032 threat and othre celestial happenings. Have a question for Dr. Emma Hart? Leave it in the comments, and we’ll do our best to get it answered.