Uribism and Petrism have already been played out by this process, in which there is also a high citizen component. This is how the charges are if the appointment is confirmed at the polls.
Despite the fact that only 48 hours ago he claimed to have detected at least 3,000 manipulated signatures, it is still not clear if Mayor Daniel Quintero challenged the decision of the Registrar with which he was given free rein to vote on the revocation that is being promoted in Medellín to remove him from the Mayor’s Office.
The deadline expired on December 31, but neither from La Alpujarra nor from the Registrar’s Office confirmed if that step was taken, although already the city – whose political scene is burning for this revocation – has seen how Quintero and his officials have been They began a tough campaign to disqualify the signature collection process. But, in this context, this recall goes beyond the local political theater.
All currents are waiting for the Registrar to confirm – after determining whether or not the challenge was given and whether they endorse it or not – the launch of that appointment to the polls, which could be next February, in order to start in front of a campaign that will be the first great electoral pulse that will be experienced in 2022.
Although the contest is already hot, because Quintero has a narrative that seeks to make Uribismo see as guilty of the attempt to remove him from power, and his opponents – the recall officers – feel they have enough citizen support to achieve the little more than 145,000 votes that are required to fulfill its objective, the truth is that this process put Medellín at the center of the national electoral debate.
In fact, it is not for nothing that the two most antagonistic characters in national politics are lining up their batteries to be the protagonists of this recall.
On the one hand, former President Álvaro Uribe is sparing no effort to bring out what he considers to be the worst mayoralty in the city in decades, even if he has not yet said up front that he would vote yes upon Quintero’s departure.
“Medellín, better luck for the 22nd,” he said in one of his last pronouncements of the year that ended. And he added that Mayor Quintero “is well understood for criminal gangs to help him choose (…) and try to bankrupt engineering companies and EPM, which founded and consolidated exemplary Antioqueños.”
And, for his part, the senator and candidate of Colombia Humana, Gustavo Petro, has already surrounded the local president, warning that – in his opinion – the only thing that exists is an orphan of power of Uribism and not a mismanagement of the one who leads the city .
“Impersonating signatures to seek the recall of a mayor is a crime against popular suffrage. It is an electoral fraud. Could it be that the prosecution dares to investigate the collection of signatures for the recall of the mayor of Medellín? “Petro said in his most recent message of support for Quintero.
And both –Uribe and Petro–, as the two main leaders of the forces with the most visibility in current electoral photography, the ex-president on the right and the congressman on the left, also have their forces (the Democratic Center and the Historical Pact ) executing strategies to defend their purpose. Of course, they are still not explicit about whether or not they will support a revocation that achieved the support of 133,248 people from Medellin who, according to the Registrar, legally stamped their signatures on the forms with which this process was promoted for months.
And although Quintero said that there are more than 3,000 fraudulent signatures and he was about to challenge the resolution of the Registrar’s Office that validated the rubrics, the truth is that to overturn this process, 42,037 would have to be annulled.
The parties move
While that stage is advancing, everyone is closely following the progress of the tough campaign surrounding the recall. And it is not a minor issue, because on October 2, 2016 – when Colombia said no to the plebiscite for peace after the agreement with the Farc – in Medellín the sector promoted by Uribe, which rejected what was signed in La Havana, obtained 431,173 votes of the 684,721 that were counted as valid; it was imposed by more than double the yes, which was left with only 253,548 votes.
And for the second round of 2018, in which Iván Duque – Uribe’s candidate – prevailed over Petro, the difference was also devastating: 693,334 votes for the now President and only 208,427 for the current Senator.
These figures are reviewed with a magnifying glass both in La Alpujarra and in the movements that promote the recall, as they are a precedent that serves as a reflection for February when – if everything runs its course – they would vote for Quintero’s departure or for, as he did, it calls, the endorsement of his mandate.
Furthermore, since it is the first vote in 2022, just before the congressional elections –March 13– and the first presidential round –May 29–, regardless of the result, it will impact those electoral processes. The reason? All parties, even if there is a large citizen component as it is evident that it exists, are involved in this first campaign.
According to representative Margarita Restrepo, from the Democratic Center, Quintero “became a figure” with the revocation and now his process is the subject of national discussion.
“There is going to be an electoral pulse. I think they are primaries, but the Medellin electorate has been characterized by being intelligent and, the truth is that the vast majority of us are surprised with the negligence and corruption, “he said.
His co-party, Senator Paola Holguín, said that Quintero has always been a politician and has known how to camouflage himself, but now – from the Mayor’s Office – “he is sadly famous for being corrupt.”
“The recall of Quintero is above the parties. Those of us who support it are not necessarily going to be united in the presidential or legislative elections, “he said. Of course, he acknowledged that the result will impact the elections that follow.
Polarized city?
And here, at this point, is when the electoral calculations take much into account what happens with this recall. Indeed, Senator Armando Benedetti, from Petro’s Human Colombia, warned that what is being seen for the first time in at least three decades is a politically divided Medellín, which allows – regardless of whether Quintero leaves or not – open spaces to modify the electoral map in this city.
“All that recall does is show the division that exists in Antioquia and that has never been shown before. Thanks to Quintero, Antioquia now has a face and stamp. That difference can mark an important guideline in the other elections that, ”Benedetti said. And he recalled that, if he continues what he described as polarization, it is difficult to see cohesive results “on the right” such as those of the plebiscite for peace – when Uribe’s no won – or those of the second round in which Duque prevailed over Petro.
And for Antonio Sanguino, from Alianza Verde, and Omar Yepes, from the Conservative Party, what happens with the recall will serve to accommodate the forces in a key place like Antioquia, but they agreed that – in their opinion – the wear and tear and polarization that Failure should be avoided.
In any case the cards are already played. Quintero knows that this revocation is an opportunity to enhance his anti-uribista discourse and union, according to him, with the Fajardismo that he has said he also wants to remove; it does not recognize the citizen component in this process.
And, on the other hand, the recalls and the parties that support them know that if they manage to go en masse to vote – just over 150,000 people need to say yes to Quintero’s departure – they will be able to consolidate a route that will be key to rearranging political power in Colombia in 2022.
Medellín is the electoral ring with which the political contest of this new year begins
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