Are the Russians giving up and retreating? There are reports of abandoned positions in eastern Ukraine. A major offensive by Ukraine is also possible.
Kiev / Munich – Is the Russian army retreating? Apparently the army of Wladimir Putin in Ukraine started to give up many positions. This is reported by the Russian newspaper, which is known to be critical of the Kremlin Novaya Gazeta. Specifically, it says: “The Russians are withdrawing”. Does this mark a turning point in Ukraine waror is it more a strategic trick of the aggressor?
Turnaround in the Ukraine war? Moscow apparently fears a Ukrainian offensive in Bakhmut
It’s about positions in eastern Ukraine: Wuhledar, Avdiivka and Novoselovka. In Wuhdelar there is a huge tank cemetery that bears witness to the Russian failure. According to the newspaper, there are also preparations for a Russian withdrawal in Bachmut, which has been contested for weeks. But they seem to be in a hurry Russians not to have, because the preparations would happen “very slowly”. Also the think tank Institute Study of War (ISW) had found that the Russian offensive in Bakhmut was making little progress. Likewise, Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin gave a gloomy prognosis about the Russian position in Bakhmumt.
But this can be loud Novaya Gazeta indicate that Moscow is preparing for an impending Ukrainian offensive, as key positions for its own attacks are also being abandoned in order to occupy better defensive positions and shorten the front line instead. For example, at Avdiivka, the troops were unable to advance further because they had exhausted their human and material resources.
Turnaround in the Ukraine war? Putin’s “offensive failed – but losses were very significant”
Military expert Yuri Fedorov also provides an explanation. On the YouTube channel of Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny he says: “On the one hand, the Russian military leadership has understood that their offensive has failed. Failed in the sense that the Russian army could not achieve notable successes. The losses, on the other hand, were very significant.”
Fyodorov continues: “If you have tied up large contingents at Bakhmut or Avdiivka and there is little chance of success (…) you have to withdraw them in order to repel an offensive. (…) This means that you have to concentrate your forces in such a way that you are able to carry out flank attacks on the opponent.”
Will Ukraine launch a major offensive? Russian troops ‘retreating’
Chief of Centre for Military and Legal Studies, the Ukrainian Alexander Musienko, said that Russia’s troops had “exhausted their offensive potential” and are now “switching to a defensive strategy and withdrawing to previously prepared lines.” Accordingly, during the unsuccessful winter offensive, a large part of the army was already there busy creating fortified areas and lines of defense. Another Ukrainian war expert, Roman Svintan, sees Ukraine preparing for a major offensive to liberate Ukraine by the end of the month.
Ukrainian military expert Oleg Zhdanov, on the other hand, does not believe that Russia is on the defensive. He blames the muddy weather for the reduced intensity and says there can be no talk of withdrawals. There has been speculation for some time about how the war in Ukraine will end. One expert sees Russia’s defeat coming in 2023. He made a surprising prognosis for the country.(cgsc)