2023-12-14 11:33:40
The military in power in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger have formed an alliance to fight jihadism together and oppose a common political front to the adversaries of their proclaimed enterprise of restoration of sovereignty, with uncertain prospects.
If their ability to win the war which is bloodying the Sahel on their own remains to be demonstrated, the outcome of a recent West African summit seems to show that the Bamako-Ouagadougou-Niamey bloc is holding up under diplomatic pressure.
Burkina and Niger are leaving the G5 Sahel for political reasons, according to expert Niagalé Bagayoko
These three countries have seen officers rise to their heads by force swearing to take back control of a national destiny abandoned according to them to foreigners, first and foremost the French, and their “the election” local. They chased away French soldiers and ambassadors, turned to new partners, including the Russians, and called into question an order defended by the Community of West African States (ECOWAS).
Worried about contagion in the face of the succession of putsches, ECOWAS imposed sanctions on them to obtain the return of civilians in charge, and threatened to use force after the most recent one, in Niger.
The soldiers closed ranks and sealed their solidarity on September 16 by creating the Alliance of Sahel States, whose charter commits the three countries to fight “terrorism” and binds them with a “duty of assistance and relief” in the face of any aggression. The Alliance first promises increased cooperation between the forces of these three countries, which total nearly 100,000 men. Can it win where other partnerships have failed?
“It has often been said in the past that the political will (to fight jihadism) must come from the states most affected. With the AES, this is undeniably the case today“, says Jean-Hervé Jézéquel, director of the Sahel Project of the conflict resolution organization Crisis Group. The question is, however, raised about the capacity of some of the poorest states in the world to bear the cost of war.
A huge space
“We cannot afford the luxury of a long-term war in the Sahel“, estimates Malian politician Babarou Bocoum.None of these three countries have ports or sufficient wealth creation capacity.“, he worries.
Niger announced in October a 40% reduction in the national budget, after the suspension of European and American budgetary support in a context of diplomatic tensions. Russia is close to establishing itself as the preferred ally of the Alliance countries, but analysts question the extent of the support it can provide.
Read also: “All French soldiers” will have left Niger “by December 22” according to the army
The Alliance is first and foremost security and avoids any political approach to insecurity. The Burkinabè number one, captain Ibrahim Traoré, described Sunday the “terrorism” like a “violent manifestation of imperialism”. It is intended to be extended to economic development and officials plan to do so.of our spaces a single space (where) to come and go, trade, defend“, said Captain Traoré.
Some take a dim view of the appearance of this entity, with leaders installed by a fait accompli, but benefiting from broad popular support among the approximately 70 million inhabitants of this immense space.
“Rhetoric and pragmatism“
Omar Alieu Touray, senior ECOWAS official, noted with irritation on Sunday that these regimes “use anti-colonial rhetoric and propaganda and present their actions as a liberation movement” pour “obtain support for their adventurer project“.
For now, their cohesion is paying off. The embargo imposed by ECOWAS is keenly felt in Niger. But the regime has given up almost nothing. “The Nigerien people, benefiting from the support of brotherly and friendly countries (…) remained standing“, assured Niger’s number one, General Abdourahamane Tiani.
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Amadou Bounty Diallo, analyst and former Nigerien soldier, qualifies the Sahelian warmongering: “This approach (the Alliance) is not a renunciation of belonging to the international community, it aims to assert sovereignty“. “These three countries started from the observation that as long as they do not take control of the management of their resources, it is almost impossible to escape poverty.“, he believes.
Mr. Jézéquel raises the limits of the exercise. The economies of these states are “not very complementary, with similar strengths and weaknesses. They are above all complementary to the economies of coastal countries with which links are strong but threatened by quarrels.“The sovereignist rhetoric mobilizes the population around a project, he said. But it does not “does not meet basic service needs. These States will come up against this reality at one point or another“.
Isolation is difficult to sustain over time, says Malian sociologist Bréma Ely Dicko. “There are speeches aimed at the crowds and pragmatism“, he said. These countries should eventually hold elections and then, “some partners will return“.
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