2024-03-22 11:31:24
Since the beginning of March, the index has witnessed a good process of support, which occurred between the day before yesterday and yesterday.
However, the indicator managed to reach the upper trend line, which has been maintained since February 12.
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The index is also trading a full bar above the upper Bollinger band, which has not happened much during this rally, making it generally overbought.
Looking at the chart, I can’t see any other time this has happened since October. It is just an observation and I am not trying to predict anything, but again, I think it is a signal of overbought territory.
He was also very strong yesterday, especially against and.
So, once again, it is approaching the 104.25 resistance level, which has been very difficult to break.
One might think that given the strength of US data, the Swiss National Bank’s move to cut rates, and the Bank of England’s dovish tone, the dollar would rise further. But we have to wait and see the extent of development here.
The index rose strongly after raising prices and ending yield curve control.
This is mainly due to the weak yen. However, the Bank of Japan has not indicated when it will consider raising interest rates again.
So this week saw the decisions of four central banks, each with reasonably calm policies and positions, which seems strange to me.
Most notably regarding the Fed, where the market is saying that the Fed’s view on inflation is wrong. We are now at the highest level of inflation parity over five years in one year.
The chart shows that the 5-year trend has been rising steadily since mid-December, around the time of the FOMC meeting. One might think that if policy were truly as restrictive as the Fed believes, this would not happen.
So, it is no surprise that the price reached the resistance level for the fifth time since June 2022.
If the Fed were to allow inflation to rise and the market was signaling higher inflation, it would stand to reason that energy prices would rise and the energy sector would rise as well.
It may make sense for the ) sector to rise because many other precious metals alongside have not moved yet.
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