Economic and interest signals are likely in the new stock exchange week about weal and woe in the DAX decide. “Important data at the beginning of the month are likely to be tapped by the markets to see whether they are sending the hoped-for signals that could prompt the Fed to slow down its pace of tightening,” summarizes Helaba strategist Claudia Windt. The recent sharp price losses had unsettled investors.
On Friday, the DAX fell significantly under the wheels. The leading German stock exchange index fell 300 points or 2.3 percent, closing at 12,971 points again below the 13,000 mark. Wall Street also rattled and the discounts were significant. The reason for the price slide lies in the words of US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who announced further clear interest rate hikes in the fight against inflation. The DAX is currently valued at around 12,750 digits.
Inflation is being fueled by rising energy prices. The situation on the gas markets is likely to worsen further, as the Russian exporter Gazprom has announced that it will again temporarily interrupt operations on the Nord Stream 1 pipeline for maintenance work at the end of the month. The European gas price has already more than tripled on the futures exchanges since the beginning of the year. According to experts, there is still no end in sight. Gas prices are likely to jump up again in October when many suppliers in Germany will raise the gas levy for the first time, says Commerzbank economist Christoph Weil. “This could drive the inflation rate in the euro area to over ten percent,” says Weil. Other economists also see the peak in price increases not yet being reached. Economist Weil calculates that the expiry of the nine-euro ticket and the fuel discount in Germany at the end of August should cause inflation to rise further.
Companies and private households are likely to continue to groan under the rising prices. In Germany, sentiment indicators have recently signaled a further slowdown in growth. “Looking at the data situation, the question is no longer whether Germany is falling into a recession – but rather how deep it could be,” says Deutsche Bank investment strategist Ulrich Stephan. The forecasts for companies clouded over accordingly. “We therefore expect a significant decline in profit margins,” says Commerzbank strategist Andreas Hürkamp. Falling profit expectations should therefore regularly slow down the stock markets.
At the start of the week, the agenda is almost empty. From the company side, the quarterly results of the Poco mother Steinhoff and the Adler Group are pending. In addition, data on German trade tax revenue, property tax receipts and the development of real wages are published.