Victor Wembanyama is already almost guaranteed to be chosen first in the 2023 NBA Draft. We even talk about him as one of the greatest all-time prospects, in any case the greatest (and not only in size) since LeBron James. And since his performance in Las Vegas in early October, the tanking race looks set to be one of the craziest in NBA history.
Every year, some NBA teams don’t look to win. They want to develop their young players by giving them maximum playing time, while caring little about the results. A luxury made possible by the closed league system used in the United States, unlike the classic promotions and relegations in Europe. Because at the end, there is the Draft, where each team chooses one or more young people among the declared. And the fewer games we win, the earlier we choose. Well, almost, since to limit tanking (in other words the tendency to lose “voluntarily” to increase your chances in the Draft), a probability system is in place.
Draft lottery odds table (since 2019)
Well, for those who are not familiar with the Lottery, a few explanations of the table above. The left column designates the seed, i.e. the place of each team in this lottery. The franchise with the worst record in the last regular season is seed 1, the penultimate is seed 2, and so on. The second column gives the probabilities for each seed to obtain the first choice of the Draft during the draw. So, seeds 1, 2 and 3 each have 14%, seed 4 is at 12.5%, etc. We therefore note that having the worst record in the League does not guarantee obtaining the first draft choice. And fortunately because otherwise the Thunder would not have won a single meeting for three years. Everyone would do anything to lose every night, even if it means scoring in their own basket and it would become anything.
This year, with French phenom Victor Wembanyama making everyone’s mouth water, it seems there are two sides to the League. Those who will try to win, to grab at least one place in play-in, so among the top ten in each conference. And there are those who will do anything not to be there. All the excuses will be good: real injuries or not really, young people not yet developed, load management for the Playoffs that we won’t do, aquapony the next morning… All of this could lead to a series of defeats rarely seen, and even why not historic results in the style of the 2016 Sixers and their masterful record of 10 wins for 72 losses. Many teams will want to lose. The Spurs have not been in this situation for 25 years (behind they had recovered… Tim Duncan, enough to inspire them) and their workforce almost resembles a G League team. the Jazz moved the whole team and concierge with it. Les Pacers cleared Domantas Sabonis, Caris LeVert and Malcolm Brogdon in a matter of months, and the Myles Turner – Buddy Hield duo could follow. the Thunder is a great tanking specialist and with the injury of Chet Holmgren, we could go back for a ride. The Rockets – despite an already hyper-promising nucleus – are not to be excluded, especially since they know how to do things: Ralph Sampson, Hakeem Olajuwon, Yao Ming, they all arrived that way, well, it’s still a big man, would history be written? We will also keep an eye on the Pistons and the Magic, even if these two franchises had their number 1 Draft and now want to grow. Finally, mention for the Hornets, who have experienced the worst offseason of all NBA teams and who could take the road to voluntary defeat with LaMelo Ball in the infirmary at the start of the season.
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It has been several years since scouts spotted Victor Wembanyama. At the same time, hard to miss a guy over 2m20 who has the talent of a back. They didn’t find out with his performance in Las Vegas against Scoot Henderson, but the latter has clearly solidified her alien status. 37 points, including 7/11 from the parking lot and 5 blocks, this game may go down in history as a turning point in the upcoming NBA season. Some franchises had already planned to tank to the extreme, others may have decided since this meeting. In any case, this is what Adrian Wojnarowski and Jonathan Givony think, star journalist for the first and NBA Draft expert for the second, co-authors of an article for ESPN which gives us a glimpse of the hype created by this match. Selected pieces.
“The impact of Victor Wembanyama’s performance on national television should become a factor in the race for the final spots, and in the aggressiveness of franchise strategies to get there. After what happened on Tuesday, front offices will be able to more easily convince owners and fans that tanking is the solution. »
Some go even further, such as Bill Simmons, journalist for The Ringer invited by Zach Lowe to talk about Victor Wembenyama on his podcast, The Lowe Post.
“I think it’s even more advanced than for LeBron. Some teams will compromise their integrity to get it back if possible. »
The feeling therefore seems to be shared within the League. Especially since some managers would have directly expressed their feelings to the journalists ofESPNand that they seem confident that something will be different this season.
“A GM told us he thought this game was going to start a tanking race like we’ve never seen. […] In fact, several members of organizations told us about conversations with their owners who seemed to have a better understanding of what Victor Wembanyama could bring to their franchise, and the steps to take to get him back. – A. Wojnarowski and J. Givony
An awareness which could therefore lead to a change of mentality, and an unprecedented race for the last places in the NBA. It’s very simple, twenty teams will qualify for the postseason, play-in included. The other ten? They could decide to do everything to be as low in the ranking as possible.
You have understood, the limits of nullity could really be pushed back this season, even if all this is still only speculation and we have already seen more or less similar scenarios in the past for prospects of the same caliber. than Victor Wembanyama. In 2003 for example. Back then, the odds in the Lottery were distributed differently. The two worst balance sheets had a 22% chance of having the first pick, the third 15%, the fourth 12%, then we went directly to less than 1%. Multi-group tanking was thus less encouraged, but extreme tanking a little more. And in 2003, a player made the whole NBA fantasize: the Chosen One LeBron James, obviously, already compared even before his draft to the greatest players of all time. So the Cleveland Cavaliers – it’s a good thing the King was born in Ohio – didn’t do things by halves to give themselves the best chance of having him. An incredible record of 17 wins, the worst in the League, tied with the Denver Nuggets (who fell to third place, oops), and a quiet first place recovery. The rest we know.
The first cover of LeBron James for Sports Illustrated, February 18, 2002. A year and a half before his draft.
This hype for the King has never been found since, except maybe once but which still seems to fall short of expectations. In 2019, it is Zion Williamson who advances as the favorite of the Draft. We only talk about him, all the time, even to other drafted players, so much so that it even becomes embarrassing. It’s him we came to see. And it was for him that we tanked. Almost as much as in 2002-03, we try a lot to lose in 2018-19: the Knicks with 17 wins, the Suns and the Cavs with 19, the Bulls with 22… Bad luck, it’s a New Orleans team in 33-49, the eighth worst record in the League, which took advantage of the change in rules that occurred the same season and its 6% chance to win the bet. A common point between the years 2003 and 2019 is the presence of other top prospects in the Draft class which push several teams to tank : even if it means missing the first choice, the second and third are not bad either. We think of Darko Milicic Carmelo Anthony in 2003, and of course also Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade (oh the slap) even if the latter two did not have the same hype as LBJ and Melo. And in 2019 we obviously had the phenomenon Ja Morant behind Zion, without forgetting RJ Barrett or Darius Garland (oh the future slap).
In 2023, the situation will be similar. Obviously, everyone will want Victor Wembanyama (not sure that France still realizes how lucky they are). But behind, there are also beautiful people. Starting with Scoot Henderson, the leader of the G League Ignite. He showed during their clash in Las Vegas that he could hold the shock, with 28 points, 5 rebounds and 9 assists. If Wemby is seen as a generational prospect, Henderson is already seen as a future star. Mention also to guys like Nick Smith and Cam Whitmore, who we compare to Gilbert Arenas and DeMar DeRozan respectively, or the brothers Amen and Ausar Thompson (Overtime Elite). Those who don’t have the first choice should therefore collect nice consolation prizes, one more reason for many to be in the starting blocks.
The hype around Victor Wembanyama is almost unheard of. Almost, because Ralph Sampson existed, Lew Alcindor aka Kareem Abdul-Jabbar too, and obviously LeBron James. But the tanking race to get it back could be the craziest in League history. All that for a Frenchman. Ladies and gentlemen, our basketball has a bright future.