2024-01-13 18:46:29
Bangladesh: Sheikh Hasina’s victory with unknown consequences
The Awami League party, led by Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wajid, won a landslide victory in the country’s 12th parliamentary elections, which were boycotted by opposition parties. With this victory, Sheikh Hasina, who has ruled without interruption since 2009, became the longest-serving state leader in the world. The victory also gave her party a fourth consecutive term in a one-sided election, which witnessed a small turnout of 40 percent. As for Bangladesh, which was formerly known as East Pakistan, after gaining its independence from Pakistan in 1971, it became the eighth largest country in the world in terms of population. Its population is 174 million people (the vast majority of whom are Muslims). For your information, the Bangladeshi Parliament consists of 350 representatives, 300 of whom are directly elected for a five-year term. The remaining 50 seats are reserved for women, who constitute nearly half of the approximately 120 million eligible voters, while the number of first-time voters is approximately 15 million. The 300 elected representatives, in turn, elect 50 female representatives proportionately to the reserved seats. According to media reports, the participation rate was low, reaching only 41.8 percent, according to the Election Commission, compared to more than 80 percent in the last elections in 2018.
While Bangladesh appears to be paving a path toward prosperity and getting rid of the legacy of coups and assassinations, the uncompetitive elections have revealed how politics in this country remains hostage to decades of hostility between the two main parties, the Awami League and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party.
In line with what has been the case during most of the past three decades, the Bangladeshi political scene was dominated by a state of bitter rivalry between two women: Sheikh Hasina Wajid (76 years old), leader of the center-left “Awami League” party, and Begum Khaleda Zia (78 years old). ) Leader of the center-right Bangladesh National Party.
Hasina is the daughter of the founder of Bangladesh, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, who led the country’s independence movement from Pakistan in December 1971. In August 1975, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, his wife (Umm Hasina) and her three brothers were assassinated, along with many family members. Others in Bangladesh were subjected to a horrific massacre inside their home by military officers. While Hasina and her sister Rehana escaped death because they were abroad.
After the family was assassinated, Hasina lived for years in exile in neighboring India. However, she later returned home in 1981 and joined forces with her future political rival Khaleda Zia to lead a popular uprising for democracy that ousted military ruler General Hussain Mohammad Ershad from power in 1990. However, the alliance with Khaleda (the widow of former president General Ziaur Rahman) did not succeed. Rather, the bitter and deep rivalry between the two women continued, dominating the country’s political scene for decades.
First victory
Hasina first led the Awami League to electoral victory in 1996, ruling for a five-year term before regaining power in 2009, and never losing it again. However, human rights groups and Western governments accuse the sheikha, often nicknamed the “Iron Lady,” of suppressing the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party and other opponents and critics through violent repression campaigns and creating legal problems for them. It is noteworthy that General Ziaur Rahman, the husband of Begum Khaleda, was an army officer, before he became the first military dictator to rule Bangladesh when he assumed the presidency between 1977 and 1981, before he was assassinated.
Why did the opposition boycott the elections?
The Bangladesh Nationalist Party and its allies, along with some major Islamist parties, boycotted the elections after demanding the resignation of the current government during the election period in favor of a neutral interim government. However, Hasina rejected the request to step down during the election campaign so that the elections could be held under neutral administration. Indeed, tens of thousands of opposition supporters rallied in the capital, Dhaka, in December 2022 to demand that Hasina’s government resign and appoint a neutral caretaker government before general elections. In a series of interviews with local media, a number of analysts and civic figures expressed their concerns about the elections. They believed that without the participation of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and other parties, the results would lack credibility, and the 12th National Parliament would face a difficult period.
On the other hand, Hasina and her party ruled out the opposition’s request, justifying this by saying that forming a transitional government contradicts the spirit of the country’s constitution. Here we note that only four of the previous 11 national elections were held under a neutral caretaker government: during the years 1991, 1996, 2001, and 2008. These elections were widely accepted as being relatively free and fair.
The principle of assigning caretaker governments to supervising elections was approved in the 1996 Constitution, but it was abolished in 2011 during the Hasina era through a constitutional amendment, after the Supreme Court ruled that this system conflicted with the Constitution. As a result, the Bangladesh National Party boycotted the 2014 elections. The 2018 voting results were disputed due to allegations of fraud in favor of the Awami League, which won by an overwhelming majority.
An immortal reign
For her part, Begum Khaleda Zia assumed the presidency of the government twice between 1991 and 1996 and 2001 and 2006, and Khaleda was assisted by her two sons, Tariq Rahman and Arafat Rahman (now deceased). Tariq – Khaleda’s political heir – has now lived in exile since 2008, after leaving Bangladesh for the first time to receive medical treatment, and today runs his party from London.
Khaleda was accused of stealing $252,000 from a fund originally set up for an orphanage. The judiciary also sentenced her son Tariq to nine years in prison on corruption charges in a case brought by Hasina’s government in 2007. Supporters of the Bangladesh National Party claim that there are political motives behind the ruling, most notably the removal of Tariq from politics, as they say that if he returns to Bangladesh he will be arrested and forced into prison. in prison.
As for Khaleda, she lives under house arrest, and her party continues to face increasing challenges from Hasina’s government, including preventing her from leaving the country to receive medical treatment. Indeed, the Bangladesh National Party criticized it as an act of “political revenge.”
Sheikh Hasina also justified her position by saying that Khaleda must serve a prison sentence before obtaining permission to leave. She told the media: “She must return to prison first if she wants to travel abroad to receive treatment, and if her party wants her transferred abroad, it must go to court and apply for that, and if she allows, she can travel.”
“Sham” elections
In any case, the BNP claimed that the Awami League supported “sham” candidates as independents to try to make the elections appear democratic. Retired General Sekhaut Hussein, the former election commissioner, also described last Sunday’s elections as a “sham.” Indeed, Khaleda’s remaining under house arrest and her party’s continued absence from the political scene threaten the political influence that the party enjoys, while Hasina appears to be on her way to becoming stronger and more influential, similar to her ideal, Indira Gandhi, according to a report published by the “Indian Express” newspaper. .
Ballot boxes inside a counting center (Archyde.com)
India and China support Sheikh Hasina
The size of Bangladesh’s economy is estimated at $400 billion, and it grew by 7.1 percent in 2022. At the same time, both India and China have significant interests in the outcome and credibility of the electoral process, not only thanks to their strong economic ties with Bangladesh, but also in light of their broader competition for District level. Although the United States and European countries preferred to form a neutral government before the recent elections, the two Asian rivals, India and China, stood united behind Sheikh Hasina. Washington had adopted a new visa policy for Bangladesh last year with the aim of “supporting free and fair elections” in the country, which allows the US authorities to refuse to grant visas to any individual or entity that obstructs the electoral process in Bangladesh. But both India and China have a great desire and interest in the Awami League, led by Hasina, remaining in power.
In fact, Sheikh Hasina has always kept Indian interests in mind, despite the expansion of China’s presence in the infrastructure sector. Figures reveal that bilateral trade between India and Bangladesh exceeded $15 billion in 2021-22. Likewise, India sees Bangladesh as a vital eastern “buffer zone” and provides it with pivotal support in terms of ports and access to the electricity network. Moreover, historical ties and geographical proximity enhance symbiotic trade relations between the two sides.
In parallel, bilateral trade between Bangladesh and China exceeded $25 billion in 2022. Bangladesh is strategically aligned with China, which is helping to transform its landscape through mega projects. Chinese investments in infrastructure projects funded through the Belt and Road Initiative have exceeded $10 billion.
Regarding the political calculations of New Delhi and Beijing’s relations with whoever rules in Dhaka, political commentator C. Raja Mohan: “The Bangladeshi elections were watched with great interest in India, for a number of reasons, the most prominent of which are:
Bangladesh shares a 4,096 km border with India, India’s longest with any of its neighbours.
– The deep historical, cultural and economic ties that mean that Bangladesh is stable, prosperous and friendly is in India’s interest. Therefore, it stands strongly behind Sheikh Hasina.
– Hasina’s main rival, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, has always enjoyed close relations with the Jamaat-e-Islami and the party has a traditional alliance with Pakistan. Indeed, during the rule of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, several terrorist attacks took place against India from within Bangladesh. Therefore, New Delhi fears that if he returns to power, terrorism may become a major concern.
As for Beijing, the Chinese presence in Bangladesh has grown significantly in recent years. After 2016, Bangladesh, like other countries in the region, joined China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Since then, China has completed many infrastructure projects in the country. During November 2023, the construction of the “Padma Bridge” railway link was completed, in addition to Beijing’s participation in many other projects inside Bangladesh. Thus, continuity and stability within Bangladesh are important to Beijing; To ensure the success of the “Belt and Road Initiative” plans, it believes that the strength of the “Awami League” is the best option to achieve this success.
Challenges facing Hasina
On the other hand, Sheikh Hasina’s rule will face several challenges. Here, journalist Salahuddin Shoaib Chowdhury, residing in Bangladesh, believes that “one of the biggest and most pressing challenges facing Hasina will be managing the risks of post-election unrest, especially since the elections exacerbated the dangerous political polarization in the country. While the Awami League coveted the result, the Bangladesh National Party feels angry and unfair… It would be wise to monitor the next reaction that the “party” will take. Will it stay away from the spotlight or will it try to strengthen resistance efforts on its part?
Chowdhury believes that, despite Western accusations of the decline of democracy, what the ruling “Awami League” seeks for itself is its policies and performance, and Bangladesh is expected to become a middle-income country by 2041. It is also on its way out of the category of least developed countries, according to the classification of nations. United States by 2026. Compared to other South Asian countries, Bangladesh finds itself above average in the Human Development Index standards. A World Bank report issued in October stated that the extreme poverty rate fell from 9 percent in 2016 to 5 percent in 2022. This situation may pose a challenge to some of Dhaka’s diplomatic relations, especially with Washington.
As for Seema Guha, a journalist concerned with Bangladesh affairs, she comments: “There is a broad consensus in the United States and Europe that these were not democratic elections. As an example, the European Union did not send an election observation mission due to the lack of conditions conducive to holding free and fair elections, as well as ensuring that the mission itself operates freely. “The suppression of the Bangladeshi opposition is known and generally rejected within the United States and European capitals.”
To this, supporters of Hasina and her Awami League party respond by saying that the president and the party have built a country with a growing industry and thriving development projects. Stability also contributed to Bangladesh sparing military coups.
On the international scene, she succeeded in strengthening relations with powerful countries and achieving a balance in her country’s relations with competing powers. Moreover, it is strongly supported by both India and China, even as the two Asian giants face off militarily in disputed border areas, not to mention their financing of a large number of Bangladeshi infrastructure projects.
Also under Hasina, Dhaka built important ties with Russia, even as it pressed to stop the fighting in Ukraine and increasingly courted Western leaders.
Hasina is credited with turning around the $416 billion economy and its massive garment industry, while also winning international praise for sheltering nearly a million Rohingya Muslims fleeing persecution in neighboring Myanmar. Despite the economic shock in recent months, following the outbreak of violent protests over the jump in the cost of living, the International Monetary Fund approved the first review of Bangladesh’s $4.7 billion bailout plan last December. This provided immediate access to about $468.3 million and made $221.5 million available for the climate change agenda.
Opposition activists in a demonstration calling for a boycott of the elections (Archyde.com)
Events, violence and elections in Bangladesh
1971: The birth of Bangladesh, after a war that tore apart Pakistan, led by the “Awami League” and its leader Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. 1973: The first elections ended in a landslide victory for the Awami League, amid allegations of fraud in some places. 1974: Mujib bans opposition parties, effectively turning Bangladesh into a one-party system. 1975: Mujib was killed in a military coup along with most of his family members. Only his daughters Sheikh Hasina and Sheikh Rehana, who were abroad at the time, survived. General Ziaur Rahman effectively took charge. 1979: The Bangladesh National Party wins the elections, led by Ziaur Rahman, and the Awami League claims widespread fraud and rejects the results. 1981: Ziaur Rahman was assassinated, his deputy Abdul Sattar took power, and won the general elections. 1982: Army Commander General Hussein Ershad leads another coup. 1986: The Ghatiya Party led by Ershad wins the elections, amid weak turnout. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party, now headed by Khaleda Zia, Ziaur Rahman’s widow, is boycotting, while the Awami League, led by Hasina, is participating. The majority view the results as illegitimate. 1988: Another election amid calls to dismiss Ershad, boycotted by both the Awami League and the Bangladesh National Party, and Khaleda and Hasina led protests together. 1990: Ershad resigns amid mass protests, and a caretaker government takes power. 1991: The Bangladesh Nationalist Party wins a narrow majority in what is considered the fairest election to date. Khaleda becomes Prime Minister, and the Awami League is in the opposition. 1996: The Bangladesh National Party refuses to appoint a caretaker government, and wins a controversial election with most parties boycotting it. The government lasts only 12 days, and elections are held again, this time under a caretaker government. The victory of the “Awami League” and Hasina assuming the reins of power for the first time. 2001: The Bangladesh National Party wins the elections under a caretaker government. He grants ministerial portfolios to the Islamic Group. Election violence targeting the Hindu minority in Bangladesh. 2006: A stalemate with the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and the Awami League unable to decide on a caretaker government, and President Iyazuddin Ahmed, with the support of the army, declaring himself the country’s leader. 2007: Military-backed caretaker government arrests Khaleda Zia and Sheikh Hasina on corruption charges. 2008: Elections were held under the caretaker government, and Sheikh Hasina and the “Grand Alliance” led by the “Awami League” achieved a landslide victory. 2011: Hasina repeals provisions relating to caretaker government, citing previous experience from 2006 to 2007. Opposition is repressed. 2014: Khaleda was placed under house arrest, and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and opposition parties boycotted the elections. Another big win for the Awami League. 2018: The Awami League wins a landslide victory, even as reports of violence, voter suppression, and election fraud emerge again. The Bangladesh National Party boycotts the elections again.
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