The war in Ukraine demanded our attention last year. But that conflict is by no means the only one that threatens to ignite or worsen in 2023, sometimes also near the European Union. An overview.
Nagorno-Karabakh: blockade could turn into war
In recent weeks, tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan have escalated in the South Caucasus due to an Azerbaijani blockade of the Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, called Artsakh by the Armenians. In 2020, both countries fought another bloody war that lasted six weeks. 7,000 soldiers were killed. Then Russia negotiated a ceasefire, but due to the war in Ukraine, Putin (and the handful of Russian peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh) are looking away. Armenia also no longer receives weapons from Moscow. Azerbaijan receives support from Turkey and rearms itself with the proceeds of gas exports, including to the EU.
China steps up pressure against Taiwan and US
The Chinese claim to Taiwan has been regularly reinforced over the past year by dangerous maneuvers by Chinese fighters, most recently last week. Fears are growing that a military incident or invasion could turn into a conflict between China and the US, which supports Taiwan. This would have dramatic consequences not only for the region but also for our global trade.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s more assertive stance is also fueling tensions with India and Japan, which doubled its defense spending for the first time since the end of WWII. Still in the region, North Korea is provoking everyone by producing more nuclear weapons.
Israel vs. Palestinians and Iran
2022 was a bloody year for the Palestinians. More than 200 Palestinians were killed in clashes with the Israeli army in Jerusalem, the West Bank and Gaza. Palestinian extremists, for their part, killed more than 30 Israelis. There are fears of a Third Intifada in 2023, now that Prime Minister Netanyahu has formed a government with ultra-nationalist and ultra-religious parties that want to legalize illegal settlements and annex more land.
Israel also threatens to be on a collision course with Iran, which continues its nuclear weapons program. And vice-versa. Iran is unstable due to continued youth protests against the regime, which in 2023 may provoke an external enemy (such as Israel, Saudi Arabia or the US) in an attempt to unite the people ‘behind the flag’.
Jihadism from Syria to Sahel and Afghanistan
From Syria to the African Sahel and Afghanistan, jihadist extremists continue to clash with the armies of authoritarian governments.
In Syria, many IS fighters are still locked up in camps, but fears are growing that they could escape into areas where the Kurds guard them. The Syrian Kurds are distracted as they come under increasing fire from Turkey. President Erdogan is expected to step up his offensive ahead of the June elections to divert attention from domestic problems.
African Sahel countries such as Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger on the one hand, and an Asian country such as Afghanistan on the other, also remain focal points for extremism. In Burkina Faso, according to the International Crisis Group, 40 percent of the country is already controlled by jihadists. The West turned its back on these countries in 2022. Sooner or later this will come back like a boomerang.
Libya: Warlords Law the Knives
Oil-rich Libya could become the powder keg of North Africa and the Mediterranean by 2023 if the international community does not quickly pull out all the stops to mediate. Almost twelve years after Colonel Gaddafi was ousted, a frozen civil war threatens to flare up again. Armed factions fight for power. The government in western Tripoli is divided into two groups. Warlord and general Khalifa Haftar defends his oil interests from eastern Benghazi with his own militia. A Libya in chaos is triggering ever-increasing migration flows to the EU.
Balkans: pro-Russian Serbs threaten stability
Last year, candidate EU member Serbia concluded an agreement with Russia on ‘mutual consultations on foreign policy’ and defense cooperation. The government in Belgrade bought Russian MiG fighter planes and tanks, among other things. Moscow now even has an office in the Serbian Defense Ministry. This is not without consequence. Tensions have recently been stirred up with Kosovo over the rights of the Serbian minority vis-à-vis the Albanian majority. There are also great tensions in the Bosnian Federation between the Serb enclave Republika Srpska on the one hand and the Bosnian Muslims and Croats on the other. The Balkans will be a major challenge for the EU in 2023.
Eastern Congo: risk of regional conflict
In eastern Congo, violence flares up between the Congolese government army and rebel group M23, which receives support from Rwanda. There is a threat of a new regional war between Congo and Rwanda if their conflict over resources and civil rights is not resolved.
Haiti: Gang violence threatens civil war
The poorest country in the Western Hemisphere is sinking into anarchy. Since the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse in 2021, interim Prime Minister Ariel Henry has lost control. More than half of the country is already in the hands of criminal gangs. There is a real chance that a large-scale civil war will break out in 2023.