In a sharp critique of Europe’s fragmented approach to migration governance, Professor Vicki Squire, Director of the Migration Research Group at the University of Oxford, has warned that the continent’s reliance on bilateral deals with transit countries is unsustainable—and risks deepening humanitarian crises. Speaking at a closed-door briefing for EU diplomats in Brussels last week, Squire presented data showing that 68% of asylum applications in the EU’s Dublin Regulation system were rejected on procedural grounds in 2023, a figure she described as “a symptom of a system designed to fail.”
The remarks came as the European Commission prepares to unveil its revised Pact on Migration and Asylum, a legislative overhaul intended to streamline asylum procedures and redistribute responsibility among member states. Squire’s analysis, shared exclusively with World Today News, highlights how the EU’s current model—centered on externalizing border controls through agreements with countries like Turkey, Tunisia, and Libya—has created a “perverse incentive structure” for governments to prioritize containment over protection. “When you outsource border enforcement, you likewise outsource accountability,” she said. “The result is a patchwork of human rights violations that no European government can credibly deny.”
Her intervention follows a series of high-profile failures in migration governance this year. In March, the Italian government blocked a French-flagged ship carrying 234 rescued migrants from disembarking in any EU port for 18 days, a standoff that ended only after the European Court of Human Rights intervened. Meanwhile, the EU’s asylum agency, EASO, reported in April that 42% of first-instance asylum decisions across member states were overturned on appeal—a rate that Squire called “a clear sign of systemic inconsistency.”
The Oxford scholar’s focus on the Dublin Regulation, which determines which EU country processes an asylum claim, underscores a growing divide between northern and southern member states. While countries like Germany and France advocate for mandatory solidarity mechanisms, including relocation quotas, Eastern European nations such as Hungary and Poland have repeatedly vetoed such measures. Squire’s data reveals that in 2023, only 12% of asylum seekers were relocated under voluntary schemes, leaving the burden disproportionately on frontline states like Italy and Greece.
Her argument gains weight against the backdrop of the EU’s strained relations with North African partners. Last month, Tunisia’s president, Kais Saied, suspended a 2016 readmission agreement with the EU after Brussels refused to meet his demand for €500 million in aid—a move that triggered a surge in irregular crossings to Italy. Squire noted that such agreements often lack legal safeguards, leaving migrants vulnerable to exploitation. “The EU’s approach treats migration as a security issue rather than a human one,” she said. “Until that changes, these crises will maintain recurring.”
The European Commission’s proposed asylum pact, due for final negotiations in September, includes provisions for mandatory relocation and faster processing of claims. However, Squire cautioned that without binding enforcement mechanisms, the reforms risk becoming “another empty promise.” Her analysis aligns with a recent UNHCR report, which found that 70% of EU member states had not implemented key aspects of the 2013 Asylum Procedures Directive, despite repeated calls for compliance.
As the debate intensifies, Squire’s warnings resonate with ongoing legal challenges. Last week, the European Court of Justice ruled that EU member states cannot automatically deny asylum to individuals transiting through safe third countries—a decision that could force a reevaluation of the Dublin system’s core principles. With no clear consensus emerging among EU leaders, the question remains whether the bloc will address its structural flaws or continue to manage migration through ad hoc crisis responses.
