50 meters in diameter, 1/600 chance of collision… Closest approach in February 2046
A similar collision in the early 20th century… 80 million trees fell in Siberia
An artist’s impression of the asteroid 2023DW, which was first discovered on February 26.It is currently 19 million kilometers from Earth. (Provided by the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration)
An asteroid has been discovered with an estimated 1 in 600 chance of colliding with Earth in 23 years. It was calculated to have the highest collision probability of any asteroid confirmed to date.
However, NASA has revealed that the risk level is higher than the average for near-Earth asteroids, but the probability of collision is extremely low. NASA also predicted that further observations would further clarify the asteroid’s trajectory, further reducing the danger.
The name of the asteroid, which was first discovered on February 26, is 2023DW.
It was discovered 10 million kilometers from Earth through the Asteroid Observation Program at the San Pedro de Atacama Observatory in Chile. With an estimated diameter of about 50 meters, it is the size of an Olympic swimming pool.
It is similar in size to the meteorite that fell in the forests near the Tunguska River in eastern Siberia in 1908. At the time, the 12-megaton-class blast knocked down 80 million trees in a forest covering more than 2,000 square kilometers and killed at least three people.
Asteroid 2023DW taken on Feb. 28 (provided by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration)
Accurate trajectory predictions will continue for the next few weeks
NASA said the asteroid is currently expected to make its closest approach to Earth on February 14, 2046, and will likely pass the Earth at a distance of more than 1.8 million kilometers. The European Space Agency’s Near-Earth Object Coordination Center (NEOCC) has calculated that the probability of a collision with Earth is 1 in 625 as of the 8th, and this number changes daily. The asteroid is now number one on the Center’s hazard list.
The projected collision hazard area spans the Indian Ocean, across the Pacific, to the western and eastern coasts of the United States, connecting Hawaii, Los Angeles and Washington, DC.
On the Turin Scale, which indicates the risk of a collision with Earth within 100 years, it gets a score of 1 out of 10. A 10 on the Turin scale means 100% chance of collision, 0 means 0%. 2023DW is the only object on NASA’s Near-Earth Object Hazard List where the Turin Scale is not zero.
“We need weeks of data to properly predict the trajectory of new objects,” NASA said on Twitter.
Predicted collision risk areas as of March 3 = twitter.com/Piero_Sicoli//The Hankyoreh Shimbun
Severe damage to the affected area at the time of collision
2023DW is a small asteroid, but it could cause serious damage if it hits an urban area. If an asteroid or meteorite with a diameter greater than 25 meters and less than a kilometer hits Earth, it is likely to cause localized damage in the impact area, according to NASA.
In 2013, a meteor that flew towards Earth and exploded over Chelyabinsk, Russia, was less than half the size of the asteroid, but the impact of the explosion damaged thousands of buildings and injured 1,500 people.
2023DW is currently 18 million kilometers from Earth and is traveling at a speed of 25 kilometers per second. The solar orbital period is estimated to be 271 days.
Kwak Nopil, senior staff reporter (contact [email protected])
Translation JS