Two minutes after the start of 2023, Ukraine began bombarding a school in the middle of the night with an extremely advanced American artillery system. According to the Ukrainians, 400 Russian soldiers were killed. The Russians themselves admit that 63 people were killed. ‘Russia’s recognition of this goes a long way,’ says Professor of International Politics David Criekemans.
Makijivka, home to about 350,000 people, is located in the far east of Ukraine in an area where the Russians and pro-Russian military have ruled for almost a decade. The province of Donetsk, in which the city is located, has since been annexed by Russia. It is there that the Russian army requisitioned an old school building to house recently mobilized soldiers.
LOOK. The target was a school building used as a shelter for Russian soldiers
Downed two missiles
On New Year’s Day, a few minutes after midnight, the Ukrainians began bombarding the school with Himars missiles, a highly advanced artillery system from the United States. According to the Russian Defense Ministry, there were six missiles, two of which could be shot down before they hit their target. The latter could not prevent the building from being razed to the ground. Even Russia admits that the attack took place. But opinions differ widely on the number of deaths.
“The fact that Russia acknowledges the attack and admits that 63 people were killed goes a long way,” says Professor of International Politics David Criekemans (UAntwerp and KU Leuven). “After all, it happened very deep in Donetsk province, a territory that the Russians have controlled for a long time. But now they actually admit that they cannot adequately defend that territory.”
Ukraine was quick to claim that as many as 400 Russian soldiers were killed in the rocket attack. If true, it would be the heaviest blow Ukraine could inflict on Russia in one fell swoop.
“I don’t know how Ukraine could verify the number of Russian deaths so deep in the Donbas,” says Criekemans. “Exact figures should come from the Russians, but they have no interest in giving them. Ukraine, on the other hand, can use such high enemy death rates for propaganda purposes. In short, we do not know exactly how many Russians were killed and we can therefore draw few conclusions from the numbers provided by both parties.”
Political message for Russia
What is certain is that this attack is a political message from Ukraine to Russia. With this, Ukraine indicates that it has the ambition to consolidate the entire territory again. The question is how Russian President Putin will respond to this. Of the 300,000 soldiers he has mobilized, 150,000 have already been deployed, mainly as cannon fodder. The remaining 150,000 are now being trained to take part in the Russian spring offensive. Due to this attack in Makijivka, this offensive could come faster than expected, although other factors will of course play a role. Putin must also be given time to prepare his response.”
In Russia itself, there was a lot of criticism that the recruits were housed in such a fragile infrastructure as a school. “Why weren’t they in bomb shelters?” ultra-conservative journalist Andrey Medvedev wondered. Daniil Bezsonov, a senior official in the area supported by Russia, was also not pleased: “Whoever is responsible for this decision must be punished. There are enough shelters with strong infrastructure in the Donbas to house troops.”
What is also suggestive is that the building not only housed Russian soldiers, but also stored ammunition. That would explain why the rocket hits caused such a huge explosion and completely destroyed the school. “I also found the fact that there was ammunition in the building remarkable,” says Criekemans. “But it is quite possible. Previously, Russian ammunition depots were the target of Ukrainian attacks. It is possible that Russia has started looking for less obvious locations for their ammunition because the formal storage places were no longer safe.”