(Original title: Strategies of Top Ten Brokers: Comprehensively repairing the market is expected to continue for several months, focusing on areas with high performance and exceeding expectations)
Source: Financial World
CITIC Securities: A-share comprehensive repair market has started and is expected to last for several months
The research report of CITIC Securities pointed out that the domestic economy and policy expectations are gradually becoming clearer, and the year-on-year improvement in the economy is expected to continue into the second quarter of next year; There is continuity in the entry of positions and incremental funds; the A-share comprehensive repair market has been launched and is expected to last for several months. During the period, disturbance factors may be repeated, but the repair trend will not change; it is recommended to continue to adhere to balanced allocation and actively deploy valuation switching and Inflection point industry.
CITIC Construction Investment Strategy: Counterattack Market Expands
The market rebound this week is in line with the judgment of “bottom area, ready to counterattack”, but the duration of the counterattack still needs to examine the further cooperation of fundamentals and capital. The domestic CPI in September reached 2.8%, dispelling the market’s concerns about tightening policies this year, but other economic data did not show a significant improvement; since the second half of September, the market turnover has continued to hit a new low, and near the end of April, the selling pressure has decreased Small, create conditions for emotional repair. The improvement of social financing has not completely reversed the market’s concerns about the lack of subsequent growth momentum, and the overall sentiment recovery is more obvious. Compared with the second quarter report, the improvement in the third quarter report is expected to be limited, and you can pay attention to some sub-sectors. In addition, considering that the market has already begun to expect next year after the third quarter report, if the style returns to the prosperity track in the future, it is believed that the layout clue of the current trend track is “23 years. Continued high economic climate + deterministic upward trend in profitability” two clues. At present: 1) The growth direction is preferably the wind/storage/light/military industry that is still expected to be good for the next year; 2) The cycle reversal continues to be optimistic about power/farming, and the medium-term dimension focuses on medicine and is independent and controllable; 3) Low-level preference for consumption with stable performance Leading + City Commercial Bank.
Haitong Strategy: Steady growth and the implementation of the policy of ensuring the delivery of buildings are expected to promote the second wave of opportunities for the stock market in the fourth quarter of the year
Haitong strategy analyst Xun Yugen and others said that for reference to history, the upward inflection point of credit data and the bottom of A-shares appeared in sequence, in the order: loan balance, M2, and social financing stock year-on-year A shares ≥ medium- and long-term loan balance year-on-year. The social financing bottomed out year-on-year on 21/10, and medium and long-term loans began to pick up on 22/09 year-on-year, verifying that the current bottom area of A shares is solid. The implementation of the policy of stabilizing growth and ensuring property handover is expected to promote the second wave of opportunities in the stock market in the fourth quarter, and growth sectors such as new energy and digital economy are more flexible.
Huaan Securities: If the Fed’s interest rate hike is not expected to repeat, a staged rebound of A shares can be expected
Since mid-August, the Fed’s increasing expectations of interest rate hikes have become a key factor restraining risk appetite in global capital markets, including A-shares. Judging from the results of market feedback, the current expectations for the rate hike by the Federal Reserve are experiencing cooling and easing. U.S. stocks rebounded rapidly after opening sharply lower, while 10Y U.S. bond interest rates continued to fall after rising. If the expectation of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates does not recur in the future, it is expected to usher in an oversold rebound in the global capital market, and A shares will also usher in an oversold rebound opportunity during the period when the external key inhibitory factors are eliminated and eased. In terms of configuration, we should pay attention to the rebound opportunities and medium-term advantages of popular tracks with high growth and prosperity. Some consumer goods with large declines and long-term logic in the early stage, traditional energy chains with strong winter demand but limited supply, and the continued introduction of real estate policies are all worthy of attention.
China Merchants Securities: Continuous disclosure in the third quarterly report, focusing on areas of high performance and exceeding expectations
Considering the performance forecast of the third quarterly report of A-shares, recent changes in industry prosperity, and some variables faced by listed companies, we can pay attention to industries where the future prosperity can be maintained and profits have marginal room for improvement: 1. The new energy vehicle field (new energy vehicles) whose prosperity continues to be high energy powertrains/automotive parts/rare metals). 2. Midstream and downstream industries (such as high-end equipment, etc.) benefit from lower cost pressures and strong demand. 3. Areas with marginal improvement in prosperity and large room for improvement in the future (real estate chain consumption such as kitchen and bathroom appliances, etc.).
Guohai Securities: The main line of confidence restoration is established
The main line of the follow-up On the one hand, from the perspective of the basic environment of the market, the emotional recovery is superimposed on the three-quarter report window period, and the economic growth is expected to stand out. After February 2021, the growth pattern of small and medium-sized enterprises will dominate, and the main line must be grasped in the fluctuation; on the other hand , the leading sector that the market leaves the bottom in a short period of time tends to have a certain continuity, and it is likely to be the main line of the follow-up. At the end of April this year, 6 of the 10 Shenwan tier-one industries that rose sharply in the first three days of the market are in the follow-up rebound. Continue to lead the way. In terms of configuration, the direction of the layout focuses on the economic growth, and the subdivisions include the two main lines of safe development and independent control. The first is safe development, including sectors such as Xinchuang, medical biology, new energy, and defense and military industries, and the second is independent and controllable, including electronics, computers, and other sectors.
China Post Securities: Is the market sentiment heating up?
China Post Securities believes that the market’s pessimistic expectations have been fully released. With the recovery of investor sentiment, the market will come out of the downturn and show a clear rebound. Whether the rebound can evolve into a reversal depends on new economic policies and domestic and foreign macroeconomic policies. The reversal of the environment to promote. Industry configuration suggestion: optimistic about the opportunity of the reversal of the pharmaceutical industry, relatively optimistic about the computer industry such as Xinchuang, and the military industry of national security. In addition, we are optimistic about the recovery of the epidemic and overall efforts to revitalize domestic demand for food and beverages, social services, air transportation, hotel tourism and other industries. High-prosperity growth tracks, such as new energy, photovoltaics, energy storage and high-end manufacturing, require bottom-up opportunities for individual stocks.
Zhongyuan Securities: The market safety margin raises the mid-term and long-term value again
Centaline Securities said that valuation is always an important consideration in investment. On the premise that profit expectations do not deteriorate significantly, the expected rate of return will be higher only if you buy cheap enough. The valuation of the All-A market has entered the historically low 5% area, approaching the low level in April, and the mid- and long-term allocation value has appeared again. Short-term positive factors have increased, including economic stabilization and recovery, moderate inflation, and medium- and long-term corporate credit has begun to pick up. It is expected that the short-term market is expected to stabilize and rebound. It is recommended to pay attention to oversold sectors such as innovative drugs, new energy, and non-banks that are expected to improve.
AVIC Securities: The high-end manufacturing layout is now
The adjustment of A-shares is coming to an end, and the high-end manufacturing industry has more room to rebound. The reasons are: First of all, overseas, the market has basically digested the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates by 75 basis points in November. disturbance or less. After the U.S. Labor Bureau released inflation data on Thursday, U.S. stocks fell first and then rose, reflecting that the market has priced in the September inflation data, that the Federal Reserve will have to maintain high interest rates for a longer period of time. At present, the market has basically priced in the possibility that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates sharply. CME data shows that the possibility of raising interest rates by 75 basis points in November is close to 98%. Market expectations for a 75bp rate hike in December are close to 70%. The impact of future interest rate hikes on A-shares may be weakened, and the pressure on growth stocks is expected to ease.
Industrial Securities: A new round of uptrend is expected to start in late October
1. Macro liquidity: Domestic macro liquidity remains loose, and the fastest rising stage of US bond interest rates may be over, and the suppression of the “new semi-military” is expected to gradually ease. 2. Prosperity: The current indicator points to the “new half army” has dropped to the bottom area, and it is expected to start a new round of upward movement in late October. 3. Crowding degree: The crowding degree of the “new semi-military” has once again dropped to a low range. After the recent volatility adjustment, the crowdedness of the “new semi-military” has dropped to a low level again. The crowdedness of new energy and semiconductors has fallen below the level at the end of April, and the military industry has also dropped to a lower range. 4. Funds: The main funds reappeared at the inflection point of net inflow, and private equity funds returned to increase their positions. 5. Valuation: The “new half army” valuation quantile has returned to a low level. The current PE valuations of new energy, semiconductor and military industries are 29.1x, 33.4x and 52x respectively, and the rolling one-year valuation quantiles are 7.3%, 1.6% and 14.3% respectively, which are already in the low range. Therefore, combined with multiple indicators in the timing framework, a positive signal has been sent. In terms of configuration, it is recommended to focus on the “new half army” in the third quarterly report and even the direction in which the prosperity is expected to continue next year or the performance exceeds expectations.