The National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (Insee) claims that train tickets have increased by more than 15% over the last three months. The SNCF disputes and evokes a drop of 7% in one year. Explanations.
Are train tickets getting more and more expensive? For INSEE, it’s a big yes. The administration in charge of statistical studies publishes several reports on the evolution of consumer prices over the past year. The data identified in particular by BFM Business pin the price of train tickets.
Price increase or decrease?
According to INSEE, in three months, the price of “passenger transport by train” has exploded with an increase of 15.3%. As BFM reminds us, this sudden increase in prices comes after several years of falling prices, in particular due to the Covid-19 pandemic, with an average drop of 6.1% between 2019 and 2020.
The SNCF for its part disputes the figures communicated by INSEE. On the contrary, it estimates that in one year the price of tickets has fallen by 7%, since June 2021 and the arrival of the Avantage card, intended to lower prices. The train operator explains to our colleagues that many promotions are made throughout the year. Similarly, the Ouigo offer would work wonderfully by offering ever lower prices for a large number of travellers.
The incriminated calculation system
How then can we explain such a difference between the average prices recorded by INSEE and those communicated by the SNCF? The key could be in the method of calculation. The SNCF explains that it calculates the average evolution of the prices of its tickets by a simple formula: the turnover achieved over a given period divided by the number of tickets sold.
INSEE clearly displays its method of calculation on its website. A robot checks the price of tickets sold on “train ticket sales websites” every day. A consultation “2 days, 10 days, 30 days and 60 days before the departure of the train” and with or without a reduction card. This way of calculating does not take into account the actual purchases of consumers. An expensive ticket will not necessarily be purchased by a customer. In addition, and according to the SNCF, this year, the price of tickets is much cheaper between three to six months before the departure date of the train.
Clearly, in 2022, in France, it is not yet possible to know with certainty the evolution of the price of train tickets.