The Trump-Xi summit scheduled for this week brings U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping to the negotiating table against a backdrop of deep-seated supply chain vulnerabilities, where rare earths continue to serve as a powerful diplomatic and economic card for Beijing.
Rare-Earth Influence and Supply Chain Dependencies
Rare-earth elements have loomed heavily over U.S.-China relations since April 2025, when President Trump announced sweeping tariffs against much of the world. In response, Beijing unleashed its own rare-earth trade restrictions. Those retaliatory measures triggered multiple rounds of negotiations and further trade escalations before both nations agreed to a one-year trade truce.
That truce is now set to expire in November. In the months leading up to the summit, the Trump administration has pursued an aggressive campaign to slash Washington’s mineral vulnerabilities, yet Chinese rare-earth flows have continued to fluctuate. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has stated that China only receives a “passing grade” on its rare-earth exports. Meanwhile, Chinese shipments of rare-earth magnets to the United States dropped again in August, highlighting the persistent exposure of American manufacturing and defense supply chains.
“The U.S. is unhappy about the flow of rare earths, but they’re also concerned about doing anything that may shut that off,” Jennifer Welch, chief geoeconomics analyst at Bloomberg Economics and a former National Security Council (NSC) director for China and Taiwan under the Biden and Trump administrations, said during a briefing on Tuesday.
Expectations for the Trade Truce Extension
Ahead of the high-stakes meeting—which is expected to touch on issues including artificial intelligence and Taiwan—analysts’ expectations for breakthrough structural resolutions remain limited. However, experts note that both Washington and Beijing see a mutual interest in preserving stability.
“Neither side wants to blow this up,” said Cory Combs, head of critical mineral and supply chain research at Trivium China, a strategic advisory firm.
Ahead of the summit, Greer suggested that Washington could support extending the existing trade truce by three to six months. Despite the likelihood of an extension, industry analysts emphasize that China's trade advantage will persist for years. According to Bloomberg Economics projections, China is expected to maintain its dominance over global rare-earth supply chains—encompassing mining, separation, and magnet production—until at least 2030.
“Despite all of the investments, all of the deals that the Trump administration has announced since last April, the dependence remains,” said Chris Kennedy, a former NSC director for international economics under the Biden and Trump administrations and current lead for economic statecraft at Bloomberg Economics.
Kennedy noted that even if all currently announced domestic mineral projects deliver on schedule, Washington’s reliance on external supply chains will likely persist into the early-to-mid-2030s. He pointed out that U.S. dependence is extensive due to deep intermingling with Chinese goods at every stage of production, noting that even magnet production located outside China—such as in Japan—still relies heavily on Chinese inputs and technology.
“All of those dependencies will need to be unwound,” Kennedy said.
