Former President Donald Trump has signaled that any future U.S. military or economic operations targeting Iran’s oil infrastructure and energy markets would mirror the strategy employed in Venezuela, according to remarks made during a recent campaign event in New Hampshire. The statement underscores a potential escalation in U.S. pressure on Tehran’s energy sector, a critical economic lifeline for the Iranian government, as tensions between Washington and Tehran remain elevated amid stalled nuclear negotiations and regional proxy conflicts.
Speaking to supporters on Tuesday, Trump said, “We’re going to be taking over Iran’s oil infrastructure—just like we did in Venezuela. It’s going to happen, and it’s going to happen quickly.” The comment came as Iran’s oil exports have fluctuated in recent months, with sanctions and market disruptions already tightening the noose on Tehran’s revenue streams. U.S. officials have previously acknowledged discussions about secondary sanctions targeting entities facilitating Iranian oil sales, though no formal campaign has been launched.
Why the Venezuela Comparison Matters
The reference to Venezuela is not merely rhetorical. In 2019, the Trump administration imposed a near-total embargo on Venezuelan oil exports, seizing tankers and cutting off access to global markets. The campaign, led by the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), effectively crippled Venezuela’s state-run oil company, PDVSA, slashing its production by over 70% and depriving the Maduro regime of its primary revenue source. Iran’s oil sector, though larger and more diversified, shares key vulnerabilities: heavy reliance on state-controlled entities like the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) and a network of shadowy middlemen who facilitate illicit sales despite U.S. sanctions.
According to a 2023 report by the International Energy Agency (IEA), Iran’s oil exports averaged 1.2 million barrels per day in 2023, down from 2.5 million in 2018—a decline attributed to sanctions and market pressure. The IEA noted that Tehran’s ability to sustain exports depends on “opaque trade routes and barter arrangements,” mirroring Venezuela’s pre-embargo strategy. A U.S. official familiar with the matter, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Reuters last month that Washington is “exploring all options” to further restrict Iranian oil flows, including targeting the vessels and insurers used to move the crude.
How Iran’s Oil Sector Differs from Venezuela’s
While the Venezuelan model provides a template, Iran’s oil infrastructure presents distinct challenges. Unlike PDVSA, which was effectively nationalized under Maduro, Iran’s energy sector is a patchwork of semi-autonomous entities, including NIOC, the Revolutionary Guards’ Khatam al-Anbiya Construction Headquarters (which controls refineries and pipelines), and a web of front companies operating in Syria, China, and the UAE. A 2024 analysis by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) highlighted that Iran’s oil exports are 30% more resilient to sanctions than Venezuela’s were in 2019, due to its broader network of buyers and smuggling routes.
Yet, the risks are equally high. A leaked U.S. intelligence assessment obtained by The Wall Street Journal in February warned that a full-scale embargo on Iranian oil could trigger a 20% spike in global oil prices within six months, exacerbating inflationary pressures already straining economies in Europe and Asia. The assessment also noted that Iran’s retaliatory measures—such as attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz—could disrupt 20% of global oil transit, a scenario that would force the U.S. to weigh military responses against economic fallout.
What Happens Next: Diplomatic and Market Reactions
Iran has not yet responded directly to Trump’s remarks, but officials in Tehran have signaled defiance in the past. In a statement released by Iran’s Foreign Ministry on Monday, spokesperson Nasser Kanani warned that “any attempt to unilaterally disrupt our energy exports will be met with firm measures,” without elaborating on specifics. Meanwhile, Chinese and Indian refiners—who account for 60% of Iran’s oil purchases—have shown no signs of reducing imports, despite U.S. warnings. A source at a major Indian refinery told Bloomberg this week that “the market is pricing in some risk, but for now, business continues as usual.”
On the U.S. side, the Biden administration has been tight-lipped about Trump’s comments, though a senior State Department official told Politico that the remarks “reflect a broader debate about how to counter Iranian aggression,” without confirming any shift in policy. The official added that the current administration remains focused on “diplomatic pressure and multilateral sanctions,” a stance that contrasts with Trump’s more unilateral approach. However, with Congress set to vote on additional sanctions against Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in the coming weeks, the political landscape is shifting.
In the energy markets, traders are already reacting. Futures for Brent crude rose by 1.2% on Wednesday as traders priced in the potential for supply disruptions, according to data from S&P Global Platts. The premium for Iranian crude—already trading at a $5–$7 discount to benchmark prices due to sanctions—widened slightly, signaling heightened risk aversion. Analysts at Rystad Energy noted that if the U.S. were to implement a Venezuela-style embargo, Iran’s exports could drop by another 300,000 barrels per day within three months, further tightening global supplies.
The Broader Context: Sanctions and Regional Tensions
Trump’s remarks come as the U.S. and Iran remain locked in a standoff over multiple fronts. Nuclear negotiations have stalled since 2022, with Iran insisting on the lifting of all sanctions in exchange for reviving the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Meanwhile, U.S. military support for Israel’s campaign in Gaza has drawn Iranian-backed groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis into indirect conflicts with Western interests in the Middle East. A recent report by the U.S. Central Command assessed that Iranian-backed militias have conducted over 150 attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea since October 2023, a figure that has drawn comparisons to the tanker warfare seen during the Iran-Iraq War.
For now, the question is whether Trump’s comments signal a coordinated strategy or a campaign promise with little immediate action. The last administration’s Venezuela playbook required months of legal groundwork, asset seizures, and diplomatic isolation—a process that would likely face resistance from allies wary of another Middle East oil shock. Yet, with Iran’s economy reeling from inflation and currency devaluation, even the threat of a targeted campaign could accelerate Tehran’s willingness to negotiate.
What is clear is that the energy dimension of U.S.-Iran tensions is entering a new phase. Whether through sanctions, embargoes, or covert operations, the battle over oil is no longer just about revenue—it’s about leverage, and both sides are preparing for a prolonged struggle.
