© Provided by RTL info
Two theories would explain why Putin hasn’t invaded Ukraine yet, and why he only has three weeks left to do so: here is the analysis of an expert
Could the Olympics explain Russia’s restraint in the conflict with Ukraine? Will the thaw season force Russian troops to attack within three weeks? Researcher Nicolas Gosset, specialist in Russia at the Center for Security and Defense Studies, gives some answers.
Tensions between Russia, Ukraine and NATO are still at their height. Russian troops are still massed on the Ukrainian border, but the invasion has still not taken place, despite US predictions. However, this could change: well-informed sources have told us that Vladimir Putin does not want to attack during the Olympics, but that he now only has three weeks left to attack, for meteorological reasons. Are these assumptions credible?
The Russian president would still not have gone on the attack in Ukraine, because historically, the period of the Olympic Games constitutes a truce, and this, since Antiquity. The Winter Olympics had been taking place in Beijing since early February, and ended on Sunday February 20. Nicolas Gosset, Asia/Eurasia researcher at the Center for Security and Defense Studies, is however not convinced by this hypothesis: “I heard this hypothesis according to which, in order not to offend the Chinese, we did not attack during the Olympics. But to me it’s watching the foam of the days“.
This is an explanation that does not surprise the researcher, because in 2008, Russia had waited until the end of the Olympics to attack Georgia. There are, however, he says, much more “structural” explanations for Russia’s restraint. “We are in a logic of deterrence on both sides. There is a process of diplomatic negotiations underway and the interest of the Russians is to keep the full range of options on the table, and therefore the credibility of the possibility of invading Ukraine.“. In other words, for Nicolas Gosset, Russia would not have held back because of the Olympic Games, but rather to put pressure on the negotiations with NATO.
Three decisive weeks because of the thawing of the snow?
Other information shared by our source: the next three weeks will be crucial for the Russian army. There is not much time left before the “raspoutitsa”, the thaw period, which turns the snow into mud, making it difficult for troops and tanks to move. “It’s a military-technical explanation. Strong is the one who can prevent the thaw in eastern Ukraine. We don’t know, maybe there will be another big cold spell“Nicolas Gosset shade,”there are much more fundamental elements than that (…) I don’t think we’re in a situation where it’s the weather that dictates the invasion or not“.
On the one hand, Russia and the United States indeed seem ready to communicate. The Russian president accepted the summit proposed by Emmanuel Macron this Sunday. On the other hand, certain factors may soon become all the more important in this conflict: “On the 27th there is a change of constitution in Belarus. There is probably going to be a drop in Belarus’ “non-nuclear” status, and the Russians are going to want to deploy strategic missiles there. The device will strengthen and the plausibility of the war is there for much longer than the thaw in the east“.
So can we say that Russia is not yet on the verge of attacking Ukraine? “Who can say what Vladimir Putin has decided? American intelligence cannot know what the Russian president has in mind, only he knows if he is going to attack, and if it serves his interests. But in my opinion Russia’s objective, since we are still negotiating, is not to attack imminently“explains Nicolas Gosset.