Typhoon Gucheol: Latest Updates, Forecast and Impact on Japan

2023-06-07 13:00:00

2023/06/07 22:02 Weather News

As of 21:00 on Wednesday, June 7, Typhoon Gucheol is slowly moving east of the Philippines.

Next week, it is expected to gradually change its course to the northeast and pass south of Japan in the first half of the week. Although the reliability of the typhoon’s course forecast is relatively high, please pay attention to future typhoon information as the impact on Japan will change depending on the slight change in the course.

▼ Typhoon No. 3 June 7 (Wednesday) 21:00
Central location East of the Philippines
Size class //
Strength class //
moving west slowly
Central air pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed 23 m/s (near the center)
Maximum instantaneous wind speed 35 m/s
» Latest typhoon information

Expected to slowly move northwest, then turn northeast

Typhoon No. 3 is expected to gradually increase in strength, and is expected to bring strong winds tomorrow. According to the Japan Meteorological Agency’s typhoon forecast, it is expected to become a strong typhoon with a central pressure of 950hPa and a maximum wind speed of 40m/s on the 10th (Sat), three days from now.

After this, the typhoon will move northwest along the edge of the anticyclone, and next week it is likely to change its course to the north-northeast and pass south of Japan.

Reference Results of simulations of paths calculated by meteorological agencies around the world

Each thin line in this figure represents the simulation result of the course calculated by meteorological agencies around the world. The results (members) obtained in the process of the ensemble forecast method are posted to give an image of the wide range of possible paths.

Comparing these members, it seems that the tendency to move northwest and then to the northeast is almost the same, and the accuracy of the path prediction is relatively high.

However, even though the trends are the same, there is a width of several hundred kilometers or more in the possible course, so the impact on the Daito Island region of Okinawa, the Izu Islands, the Ogasawara Islands, and the Honshu area will change greatly depending on the slight deviation. seems to be The error is expected to shrink as the days pass, so please pay attention to future information.
» Pinpoint Weekly Weather Forecast

Probability of entering the storm zone of a typhoon

The probability of entering the storm zone of a typhoon within 120 hours is as follows. (Japan Meteorological Agency)

Kagoshima prefecture
Tanegashima/Yakushima area 3%
Amami region 5%
Okinawa Prefecture
Daito Island 34%

The size of the forecast circle has nothing to do with “strength” or “size”

A feature of this typhoon is that the “forecast circle” indicated by the dashed circle in the track map is very large. Over the next five days, the typhoon forecast by the Japan Meteorological Agency is the largest in five levels (C rank).

The size of this forecast circle does not indicate the strength or size of the typhoon, but rather the degree of uncertainty of its course.

According to the current definition of the Japan Meteorological Agency, the forecast circle indicates the area where the center of the typhoon is expected to enter with a probability of 70%. It can be read with low confidence.

Understand typhoon information accurately and take appropriate disaster prevention and evacuation actions.

Time when typhoons start to increase

Average number of typhoons

This year, Typhoon No. 1 occurred in April and Typhoon No. 2 occurred in May, and this Typhoon No. 3 will occur for the first time in about half a month.

The average number of typhoons in June is 1.7, which is the time when the number of typhoons starts to increase. This is the time when the rainy season front becomes more active, so please prepare measures against typhoons and heavy rain.

typhoon name

Typhoon names are prepared in advance by member countries of the international organization “Typhoon Committee”, etc., and are given in order of occurrence.

Typhoon No. 3’s name, Guchol, was proposed by Micronesia and is derived from the Yap word for turmeric.

Reference materials, etc.

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