U.S. ADP Private Employment Growth Slows Since Early 2021; Statistical Change – Bloomberg

U.S. private payrolls rose relatively modestly in August, according to the ADP Research Institute. This suggests that employment is slowing against the backdrop of high inflation and rising interest rates. The ADP is now compiling statistics using a new method.

Key Point
  • U.S. private payrolls rose by 132,000 in August
    • Lowest growth since negative January 2021
    • The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg is for an increase of 300,000 jobs.
  • About 270,000 people increased in July

ADP compiled the data in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab. The ADP announced a review of its statistical methods in June and will not release data.stop for a whileWas.

ADP Payroll Growth

Private jobs grew by 132,000 this month, smallest since January 2021

Source: ADP

“The data suggests that employment is shifting to a more conservative pace, with businesses likely trying to decipher conflicting signals from the economy,” said ADP chief economist Nella Richardson. Analyzed in presentation materials. She “may be at a tipping point, moving from a period of superheated employment growth to a more normal pace,” she said.

By industry, employment increased particularly in entertainment/hospitality, trade/transportation/public utilities, and construction. On the other hand, it decreased in finance, information, business services, and education/health services. By region, growth was conspicuous in the South and West.

The statistics also analyze wage growth. The wages of those who changed jobs increased by 16.1% from the same month last year, more than double the increase of those who did not change jobs (7.6% increase).

Wage growth was particularly strong in entertainment and hospitality and trade, transportation and utilities. By gender, the results showed that the pace of increase was slightly faster for women. Wages at large companies with 500 or more employees rose 8.3% year-on-year, while those at small companies with fewer than 20 employees rose only 5.4%.

See table for detailed statistics.

Original title:US Companies Add Fewest Jobs Since Early 2021, New ADP Data Show(excerpt)

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