U.S. crude oil trading strategy: Inventory decline + peak holiday demand season is coming, bulls are pointing above the 80 mark
During the Asia-Europe session on Thursday (December 22), U.S. crude oil fluctuated within a narrow range and is currently trading at $78.50 a barrel, holding most of the overnight gains. Oil prices rose more than 3% on Wednesday as U.S. inventories of crude, heating oil and jet fuel tightened, even as a cold snap hits the U.S. and a holiday season holiday season is set to see a surge in travel.
U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 5.89 million barrels in the week ended Dec. 16, far more than analysts expected, EIA data showed. Meanwhile, distillate stockpiles, which include heating oil and jet fuel, also fell, compared to expectations for a rise.
Meanwhile, demand for heating oil will soar as a severe winter storm hits the U.S., with temperatures expected to drop below freezing as far south as Texas, and record low temperatures in Florida and eastern states.
In addition, the consumption of aviation fuel will also heat up with the arrival of the post-epidemic travel boom in the year-end holiday season.
A slightly weaker dollar on Thursday also provided some support for oil prices.
Daily level:Rebounded after fluctuating and falling; MACD golden cross, KDJ golden cross, oil price broke through the resistance of the 21-day moving average and the downward trend line, the short-term bullish signal has increased, and is currently testing the resistance near 79.16, the 38.2% retracement of the 93.72-70.08 decline , Further resistance is around the 80 integer mark, the 50% retracement resistance is around 81.94, the 55-day moving average resistance is around 82.60, the 100-day moving average resistance is around 84.70, and the 61.8% retracement resistance is also around this position.
The initial support below is around 77.73, the high point on December 15, the 5-day moving average is supported around 76.61, and the 10-day moving average is supported around 75.67. If this support is accidentally lost, it will increase the short-term bearish signal.
resistance:79.16；80.00；81.94；82.70；
support:77.73；76.61；75.67；73.31；
Suggestions for short-term operation:Do more cautiously on dips.