2023-12-22 21:43:00
In the US stock market on the 22nd, of the three major indexes, the S&P 500 stock index and the Nasdaq Composite Index continued to increase slightly. The U.S. economic data released today has strengthened confidence among market participants that an early and significant rate cut will be implemented next year.
Stock closing price change from previous business day S&P 500 stock index 4754.637.880.17% Dow Jones Industrial Average 37385.97-18.38-0.05% Nasdaq Composite Index 14992.9729.100.19%
Amid thin trading ahead of the Christmas holidays, the S&P 500 index temporarily fell in the afternoon, and prices became somewhat volatile. On a weekly basis, the index recorded eight consecutive weeks of gains, the longest in more than five years. The Nasdaq 100 index, which has a heavy weight in tech stocks, also rose for eight consecutive weeks, marking the longest upward trend since July 2021. The MSCI World Index also increased for the eighth consecutive week.
Among individual stocks, Apple fell, pushing down the stock index. Nike is down 12%. The day before, the company announced a weak sales outlook and a plan to cut costs by up to $2 billion (approximately 285 billion yen).
The U.S. Supreme Court has accepted Special Counsel Smith’s request for an expedited hearing on the issue of whether former President Trump, who was indicted on charges of trying to overturn the results of the 2020 U.S. presidential election, has immunity from prosecution. I dismissed it. This news may also have increased market volatility.
U.S. Supreme Court denies expedited trial on Trump’s immunity case – rejects special counsel’s request
As we enter the so-called “Santa Claus Rally,” a phenomenon in which stock prices tend to rise during the year-end and New Year holidays, some markets are positioning themselves to prepare for further stock price rises.
“Since 1928, stocks have risen an average of 1.7% during the last five days of December and the first two days of the new year,” Craig Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Sandler, wrote in a note. He also predicted that even if the S&P 500 falls, it will be small.
In the US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) statistics for November released on the same day, the core price index excluding food and energy slowed to 3.2% year-on-year increase. Market expectations (up 3.3%) were also lower.
U.S. PCE core price index grows less than expected – boosting interest rate cut expectations (3)
The data strengthened investors’ view that next year’s U.S. interest rate cuts will be faster and wider than expected.
In addition, according to a December consumer survey (confirmed figures) conducted by the University of Michigan, inflation expectations for the year ahead were at the lowest level since March 2021, as was the preliminary figure. The number of new U.S. home sales fell in November, contrary to market expectations, but the housing market is expected to recover, so this may be just a temporary setback.
us debt
US bond prices are mixed. Yields on government bonds with shorter maturities fell, while yields on government bonds with longer maturities rose.
Government bond latest price change from previous business day (bp) US 30-year bond yield 4.05% 1.90.47% US 10-year bond yield 3.90% 0.70.18% US 2-year bond yield 4.32%-2.4-0.56% US Eastern time 16 hour 42 minutes
The market was initially volatile around 8:30 a.m. New York time when the PCE price index and durable goods orders were announced. After that, long-term bonds were sold, and the spreads between 2-year and 10-year bonds, and between 5-year and 30-year bonds began to widen. Particular attention seems to have been focused on orders for durable goods, which exceeded market expectations.
US durable goods orders increase 5.4% month-on-month in November – market forecast 2.3% increase
In preparation for the holiday, trading hours were shortened to 2pm on this day. Futures trading was well below normal levels.
foreign exchange
In the foreign exchange market, the decline in the dollar index is expected to slow down. The US dollar index at one point hit a four-month low as expectations for a US interest rate cut next year further strengthened in response to the US PCE price index.
Exchange Rate Last Business Day Change Rate Bloomberg Dollar Index 1218.81-0.54-0.04% USD/JPY ¥142.51 ¥0.390.27% EUR/USD $1.1011$0.00000.00% 16:42 ET
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.65% for the week.
The yen at one point rose 0.2% against the dollar to 141.87 yen to the dollar, before falling 0.4% to 142.66 yen.
The Swedish krona briefly rose 1.2% against the dollar on the day, hitting its highest level since June 2022. It was the biggest increase of any of the 10 major currencies in a week.
crude
New York crude oil futures prices continue to fall. It was the largest weekly increase since October. Attacks on ships in the Red Sea have forced ships to take long detours to safer routes, causing delays in oil tanker shipments.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures closed below $74 per barrel. There have been reports that Russia plans to reduce seaborne oil exports. Attacks by the pro-Iranian Houthi group have forced many ships to make extensive detours to avoid the Red Sea route, and the disruption is expected to last until February next year.
Russia to cut seaborne oil shipments by 100,000-200,000 barrels per day in January – Archyde.com
Only about 30 tankers, including crude oil and fuel carriers, have entered the Babel-Mandeb Strait at the southern tip of the Red Sea so far this week, one in three weeks earlier, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. This is more than 40% below the daily average.
Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth, said that while geopolitical events are cushioning the oil decline, “weakness in supply and demand remains an overarching concern.” ” he said.
WTI futures for February on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) ended at $73.56 per barrel, down 33 cents (0.5%) from the previous day. The February North Sea Brent contract on London ICE fell 0.4% to $79.07.
Money
The New York gold market continues to rise. It rose even during the week. As US price index growth remained lower than expected, expectations for interest rate cuts next year grew stronger, and gold buying became dominant.
The February gold futures contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) closed at $2,069.10 per ounce, up $17.80 (0.9%) from the previous day. Spot gold price rose 0.5% to $2,056.86 as of 1:54 p.m. New York time.
Original title:US Stock Gauges Log Longest Weekly Run in Years: Markets Wrap
Treasuries Mixed, Curve Steeper; Early Gains Fade After US Data
Dollar Reverses Decline After Touching 4-Month Low: Inside G-10
Oil Posts Biggest Weekly Gain in Two Months on Red Sea Chaos
Gold Set for Weekly Gain as US Inflation Cooler Than Forecast（抜粋）
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