The UK food and drink trade deficit widened to more than £21bn in the first half of 2026, marking the largest gap between exports and imports since 2000. Industry leaders have warned that the growing shortfall serves as a critical warning regarding national food security amid escalating global pressures.
Shrinking Export Volumes Across Global Markets
British food and drink export volumes dropped by 11.7% in the first half of 2026 to 4bn kg. According to analysis by the Food & Drink Federation (FDF), this puts export volumes only marginally above levels recorded during the height of the Covid pandemic and in the immediate aftermath of the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease outbreak.
Trade with the European Union continued its downward trajectory, with export values falling by 0.9% as producers wrestled with the additional costs and complexity of trading since Brexit. Meanwhile, markets outside the EU experienced an even steeper decline, tumbling 6.9% in value terms.
Geopolitical conflicts and trade policy shifts heavily influenced these non-EU losses. Disruption in the Middle East saw exports to the United Arab Emirates plummet by nearly a quarter as a consequence of the US-Israel war on Iran. Across the Atlantic, the introduction of a 10% import tariff by the United States reduced cross-border sales by 16.5%.
Surging Imports and Tariffs Easing
While exports contracted, import demand remained historically high. Food and drink imports reached 19.1bn kg in the first half of this year, representing the second-highest import volume on record, trailing only the same period in the previous year.
Imports from non-EU nations have surged by more than a fifth since 2023. This shift followed the relaxation of import restrictions through trade deals, notably with Australia. Australian producers now send 25% more goods to the UK by value than a year prior, encompassing meat, oils, vegetables, and whisky.
Additional import pressure stemmed from fiscal policy adjustments. The suspension of tariffs on various manufactured foods—including chocolate and biscuits—implemented earlier this year under former chancellor Rachel Reeves’s cost-of-living package contributed to higher inbound volumes. Simultaneously, EU food producers managed to increase deliveries to the UK by 0.8% in value, having recovered in volume terms since Brexit.
Industry Warnings on National Security
Tom Bradshaw, president of the National Farmers’ Union of England and Wales, characterized the widening trade deficit as an urgent wake-up call for policymakers. Bradshaw stated that at a time of growing geopolitical uncertainty, the nation cannot afford to take its domestic food production capacity for granted.
“The pressures facing farm businesses are immense, from rising costs and regulatory burdens to extreme weather and global market volatility,” Bradshaw noted, emphasizing that food security is synonymous with national security.
Karen Betts, chief executive of the FDF, echoed these concerns, pointing out that mounting pressures on energy, ingredients, transport, packaging, and labor are compounding manufacturers’ difficulties.
“Our food and drink trade deficit is growing and is now the largest it’s been in over 25 years,” Betts stated. Highlighting the impact of regulatory changes and trade concessions, she added, “When the government then chooses to remove tariffs on, for example, biscuits imported from China, it’s not surprising that they’ll be sold more cheaply here than biscuits made in the UK.”
