Ukrainian forces continue offensive operations in the east, liberating over 1,000 square kilometres of territory through 2026 as Russian casualties reach record monthly highs, while direct diplomatic talks in Abu Dhabi yield little movement on core territorial disputes.
Negotiators from Russia and Ukraine met in Abu Dhabi on November 10 and 11 for their first direct talks since February, mediated by US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. The two-day meetings, involving Ukraine’s Rustem Umerov and Russia’s Vladimir Medinsky, produced agreement on a large-scale prisoner exchange involving more than 1,000 people on each side. However, the delegations remained far apart on territorial questions, ceasefire terms, and security guarantees.
For 13 days straight, Russian losses have exceeded 2,000 a day. That is more than 26,000 troops in under two weeks. pic.twitter.com/KXgrUCkxWl
European security advisers consulted the Ukrainian delegation in Abu Dhabi, but Russia excluded European representatives from the negotiating table. Medinsky stated afterward that Moscow saw no reason to meet with European officials. Meanwhile, Kushner proposed discussing a new European security architecture involving Russia, modeled on the defunct NATO-Russia Council.
Following the Abu Dhabi talks, Witkoff and Kushner traveled to Moscow. On November 12, Vladimir Putin told the US envoys that any foreign military presence in Ukraine is unacceptable and that deploying a European force as a security guarantee would make those troops legitimate targets. Putin rejected a truce along the current front line, insisting that the only acceptable dividing line is the state border.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy disclosed on November 13 that US representatives asked whether Ukraine would withdraw its forces from Donbas in exchange for NATO membership. Zelenskyy stated he would put a concrete package to the Ukrainian public if allied guarantees materialize, while ruling out legal recognition of occupied territory.
As diplomats maneuvered, Ukraine’s battlefield communications faced significant disruption. Zelenskyy reported on November 12 that Ukrainian units recorded several days of severe throttling to Starshield, the military variant of Starlink, across the entire front line and over Russian-occupied territory. Defense ministry specialists recorded a 161 kilometer per hour speed cap on systems operating over occupied areas, with no restrictions over Ukrainian-controlled territory.
Zelenskyy warned that interceptor drones relying on Starshield links cannot catch up with jet-powered Shahed variants due to the speed restrictions. Senators Jeanne Shaheen and Thom Tillis demanded the immediate restoration of capability, while Shaheen and Chris Coons sent a letter demanding that SpaceX preserve all records regarding Ukraine’s access.
Ukrainian Forces Liberate Territory Through Ground and Aerial Operations
On the ground, Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in the Lyman, Oleksandrivka, and Kupyansk directions have liberated over 1,000 square kilometres of territory in 2026. Russian forces have suffered a net loss of ground in four of the eight months since the February talks, with monthly casualties peaking at just over 54,000 in October as recruitment lags behind losses.
The 3rd Army Corps’ Operation Vivaldi in the Lyman sector pushed Russian forces back along northern approaches toward Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. Heavy aerial drones delivering explosive-laden ground robots behind Russian lines have shaped the tactical environment, though infantry remains the binding constraint.
Concurrently, Russia’s winter strike campaign against Ukrainian energy infrastructure is fully underway. Overnight on November 6 and 7, Russian forces launched 172 drones and 36 ballistic missiles aimed at Kyiv, followed by another 164 drones the next night. Zelenskyy told NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte that Russia fired 115 missiles in the first week of November alone.
| Metric | Ukraine | Russia |
|---|---|---|
| Monthly Casualties (October) | – | 54,000+ |
| Recent Long-Range Strikes | Interceptor drones / air defense | 6,473 Shahed-type drones (Oct) |
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Simultaneously, China conducted an unannounced major exercise rehearsing the isolation of Taiwan, deploying over 100 navy and coast guard vessels across the Western Pacific during the first half of November. Ukraine’s air force build-up also advanced, with Zelenskyy confirming that the country expects its first Swedish Gripen fighters in early 2027.
Zelenskyy reflected on the historical resonance of ongoing conflicts during an address to the Folketing of Denmark on November 11. “Some people who rule nations have learned nothing,” Zelenskyy said.
