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A partial withdrawal of Russian troops and the readiness for further negotiations – does Moscow want to de-escalate the conflict with Ukraine? No, says the Ukrainian political scientist Alexander Khara.
At a meeting with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Tuesday in Moscow, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Russia does not want a new war in Europe.
via REUTERS
But the skepticism remains. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said: “Only when we see a withdrawal do we believe in a de-escalation”.
REUTERS
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There are new developments in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
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Moscow is withdrawing some of its troops, and the Russian foreign minister has spoken out in favor of more negotiations.
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The Ukrainian political scientist and former Deputy Defense Minister of Ukraine, Alexander Khara, explains in an interview why he does not see these developments as a step towards de-escalation in the conflict.
Mr. Khara*, Russia surprisingly announced on Tuesday that it was withdrawing its troops from the south-west: is the situation now de-escalating?
So far we have not seen any withdrawal of Russian forces from our borders. And even if that were to happen in the coming days, it wouldn’t change much. Russia has been at war with Ukraine since 2014. It illegally annexed Crimea, launched a proxy war in Donbass, imposed a blockade of Ukrainian ports in the Sea of Azov, and began blocking free shipping to our Black Sea ports. Added to this are constant cyber attacks and bogus bomb threats – over 300 since this January. The Kremlin has goals that are incompatible with the existence of independent Ukraine. I therefore believe that Vladimir Putin will nonetheless continue to escalate the situation.
At a meeting with President Putin on Monday, his foreign minister spoke out in favor of further negotiations. Do you see no sign that the Kremlin now wants to go for a peaceful solution to the Ukraine conflict?
It was an orchestrated, pre-arranged meeting designed to convey a message to the West: They are open to diplomatic solutions, at least rhetorically. But in reality, Russia’s position has not changed. I have no doubt that Russia will attack Ukraine to the east. An alleged provocation should be used as a pretext for the invasion.
What could this provocation look like?
A Russian plane could be shot down. Or Russian civilians are attacked in eastern Ukraine. An attempt will be made to create a precondition for an escalation.
A “false flag operation” then?
Yes, the Russians have been very good and very inventive at this since Soviet times. Add to that Vladimir Putin’s intelligence background, he’s familiar with sabotage and false flag operations.
What else do you think is possible?
The Kremlin could also try to use its proxies in Donbass, the pro-Russian separatists, or the Belarusians against Ukraine and possibly Poland and Lithuania – while denying any Russian involvement. This is exactly what was done in 2014 when Crimea was occupied.
The rumor mill is buzzing: is this Wednesday the day of the Russian attack on Ukraine?
February 16 is said to be the day of a Russian invasion because by then the Russian stormtroopers will have completed their concentration on the Ukrainian border and the occupied territories. I wouldn’t fixate on that date. But Moscow will neither withdraw its troops on the border with Ukraine nor change its goal, namely to bring Ukraine back into its sphere of influence. I assume an escalation, especially in eastern Ukraine, but not a full-fledged war against the whole country and big cities like Kiev. And that can happen at any time, since the conditions are already in place with 140,000 Russian stormtroopers on our borders, in the occupied areas of Luhansk, Donetsk and in the Crimea.
* Alexander Khara is a Ukrainian foreign and security policy expert and was the country’s deputy defense minister until 2020.
old.defence.org.ua/
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