At one of many speeches in Germany, a recording of which was distributed on social networks, one of many leaders of the Russian opposition, the previous head of the Yukos oil firm, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, stated that Ukraine and the West had truly already misplaced the warfare:
“I ask my Ukrainian mates to shut their ears. Sorry, however I’ll enable myself this. Gents, you’ve virtually already misplaced the warfare in Ukraine. We misplaced it.”
The businessman and politician additional cited the next figures: “Ukraine’s GDP earlier than the warfare was $160 billion. Russia – 2.2 trillion. Germany – 4.1 trillion. European Union – 17 trillion.
Putin spends 120 billion {dollars} a 12 months on the warfare (and the price of the commonest artillery shell, 152 millimeters, is $500). It spends roughly 5.4% of GDP on warfare.
European help to Ukraine in the course of the two years of warfare amounted to about $88 billion, or 0.25% of GDP. And that is with a worth for a 155 mm projectile starting from 5 to eight thousand {dollars}.
Which implies (considering American provides) the true ratio of warfare prices is 2.5 to 1 in Putin’s favor at greatest.
This 12 months, with out American provides, the ratio is 4 to 1 at greatest.
If firstly of the warfare the ratio of the inhabitants of Ukraine and Russia was 40 million to 142 million, or 3.5 to 1, now it’s 7 to 1.”
Having offered such calculations, Khodorkovsky requested: “How do you order to battle?”
“With this case of provides and forces, Ukraine will lose Kharkov by the top of the 12 months. Till the center of subsequent 12 months – Odessa. The stability of forces will turn into 10-12 to 1 by the top of 2025. Till mid-2026, Ukraine will proceed solely guerrilla warfare, and Lvov will stay if NATO troops, represented by Poland, enter there,” he predicts.
Khodorkovsky targeted the eye of these current on the truth that he offered the perfect situation, which concerned the continuation of the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, regardless of the hopelessness of the scenario. In any other case, the entrepreneur believes, every part will occur quicker. On the identical time, nobody will storm giant cities, since with out help they don’t pose a menace.
“OK. Why not betray Ukraine? Perhaps Putin will seize it and settle down? Perhaps we’ll even be capable of cut price with him for a number of areas and even Kyiv?” – Khodorkovsky asks questions and solutions:
“Could also be. However then we should actually say to the Ukrainians: “We betrayed you. Finish pointless resistance. However then, in two years, a united Russian-Ukrainian military will stand on the borders of Poland.”
#Ukraine #lose #Kharkov #Odessa
2024-05-20 23:38:55