2024-03-01 18:15:12
Russia’s most powerful early warning aircraft A50 was shot down by Ukraine again! Was it the F-16’s first victory? Or Patriot missiles? (Provided by “Exploration Hours”)
On February 23, Russia’s second A-50 early warning aircraft was shot down by Ukraine. The video I am watching now is the scene after the early warning aircraft was shot down. The aircraft crashed into Russia, igniting raging fires and billowing smoke on the ground. Soaring straight into the sky.
Ukraine shoots down Russian A-50 early warning aircraft again
The shooting down occurred at 6:48 pm local time, and the incident occurred in Russia on the east side of the Sea of Azov. The Ukrainian intelligence service quickly issued a statement stating that the operation was jointly led by the Ukrainian intelligence service and the Ukrainian Air Force.
Let’s take a look at the footage from the scene. You can see a series of red burning tracks in the night sky. This is actually the early warning aircraft releasing thermal bombs. From the release trajectory of the thermal bombs, we can see that the early warning aircraft is traveling from the right to the left of the screen. The thermal bombs are The bullet was released for at least nearly 1 minute. This shows that the early warning aircraft has completely detected the incoming missile.
Then there was a sudden huge explosion in the upper right corner of the screen (0 minutes and 54 seconds into the video), and a few seconds after the video (one minute and three seconds), the plane in the center of the screen was hit by a missile, There was a huge explosion and flames shot into the sky. Afterwards, the plane burst into flames and hurtled toward the ground.
Let’s briefly analyze the two explosions. The first explosion occurred in the upper right corner of the screen. It is very likely that the first missile missed its target and exploded in the air, while the second explosion actually hit the target.
For most medium and long-range missiles, releasing thermal bombs is actually ineffective. The main function of thermal bombs is to create a large number of heat signals to interfere with enemy infrared guided missiles. Generally speaking, short-range combat missiles are infrared-guided, such as the American Sidewinder and the Israeli Monster Snake. These short-range combat missiles will be easily interfered when encountering hot flame bombs. However, some medium and long-range air defense missiles or air-to-air missiles mainly use radar guidance, and the heat signals released by thermal bombs cannot be interfered with at all.
The location of this incident is located in Russia, more than 200 kilometers away from the front line. It is obvious that what Ukraine launched was definitely not a short-range combat missile, but a medium-to-long-range air defense missile or an air-to-air missile. In other words, the Russian early warning aircraft was in an emergency. Releasing thermal bombs will have no effect. It can be seen that after realizing that the missile was incoming, the Russian early warning aircraft did not have enough countermeasures. In a hurry, it continuously released thermal bombs to achieve a psychological comfort effect.
After reading what happened, let’s take a look at where the incident took place.
Immediately after the attack, the Ukrainian intelligence agency released a route map of the early warning aircraft. The aircraft should have taken off from an airport near the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don and then patrolled continuously at a 45-degree angle to the southwest. , was shot down while on patrol. It can be seen from the flight trajectory that the Russian early warning aircraft is very cautious. Its patrol route is a full 150 miles, or 240 kilometers, from the front line where Russia and Ukraine are fighting.
Let’s take a look at the pictures released by the famous Russian military blogger RYBAR. Their pictures accurately recorded the locations where two A-50 early warning aircraft were shot down. In the very center of the map, near Mariupol, is the place where the first A-50 early warning aircraft was shot down on January 15 this year. This place is located northwest of the Sea of Azov and belongs to the Russian-occupied area in Ukraine.
I have done a special episode before about this attack, which was carefully planned by the Ukrainian intelligence services and air defense forces. In the attack on January 15, the reason why Ukraine was able to hit the Russian early warning aircraft was entirely because the Russian early warning aircraft was relatively close to the front line, with a straight-line distance of no more than 100 kilometers.
The attack that occurred on February 23 was completely located within Russia, on the east side of the Sea of Azov. The distance from the front line was almost double that of January.
Obviously, on January 15 this year, Ukraine used the Patriot to ambush Russia’s first early warning aircraft A-50 on the front line. This gave the Russian Air Force a great shock, so it moved the A-50’s patrol route directly back by 100 to 150 kilometers. Russia believes that patrolling in such an area is very safe for its early warning aircraft. But Russia couldn’t be more wrong.
The weapon that shot down the A-50 early warning aircraft
Regarding this attack, what weapon did Ukraine use to shoot down the Russian early warning aircraft? We can make several basic assumptions:
The first speculation is that it is the Patriot missile. The battle that took place on January 15 this year has fully proved that the Patriot missile can not only intercept the hypersonic missile “Dagger”, but can also shoot down various Russian fighter jets when placed on the front line by Ukraine.
Let’s take a look at news coverage from war zones. Within three days from February 17 to February 19, Ukraine shot down six Russian fighter jets, including four Su-34s and two Su-35s. Through online picture analysis, these downed Russian fighter jets were mainly active near the front lines of Zaporozhye and Donbas. For example, a Su-35 was shot down over the sea near Mariupol, and a Mi-8 helicopter was shot down. Photographed searching for the wreckage of a downed plane on the sea.
In other words, Patriot missiles have been frequently deployed to the front line by Ukraine recently and have repeatedly shot down Russian fighter jets approaching the front line. But there is a very serious problem here, which is the limited range of Patriot missiles.
Different models of Patriots have different ranges, and even the numbers published by various media are different. In general, the maximum range of Patriot II can reach 160 kilometers, and the maximum range of Patriot III is probably more than 70 kilometers. This is mainly because the Patriot III is smaller in size than the Patriot II, and one launch vehicle can carry up to 16 missiles. But in any case, the Patriot’s range is difficult to exceed 200 kilometers.
When the Russian A-50 early warning aircraft was shot down on January 15, it was about 80 to 100 kilometers away from the front line. But this time the A-50 was shot down more than 200 kilometers away from the front line. Unless the Patriots transformed into THAAD, it would be impossible to hit such a distance.
If it were not the Patriots, the second possibility is that the Russians accidentally shot down their own early warning aircraft? When the first A-50 early warning aircraft was shot down on January 15, Russia’s own statement at the time was that it was shot down by its own air defense system. Think about it, everyone. When the cruiser Moskva was sunk in April 2022, Russia’s official statement was that the Moskva had a fire and refused to admit the fact that it was hit by Neptune. I don’t believe that Russia is so stupid that it shot down its two most precious early warning aircraft worth hundreds of millions of dollars in two consecutive months. Russia may currently have less than seven flying early warning aircraft. If this continues, there will be no early warning aircraft available before the end of the year.
The third possibility, which many military fans have speculated, is whether the F-16 fighter jets have arrived at the front line to participate in the battle. I personally think this possibility is unlikely. First of all, there is currently no definite news that the F-16 has arrived in Ukraine. On February 23, Ukrainian President Zelensky released a video showing Ukrainian pilots receiving F-16 training. I saw media reports that the F-16 fighter pilots trained by the U.S. National Guard will graduate by May this year. In other words, the F-16 is probably not arriving in Ukraine to participate in the battle now. More importantly, the F-16 fighter jet carries the longest-range air-to-air missile called the AIM-120D. This is the latest model, which uses a dual-pulse rocket engine and has a much higher range than the previous version. The maximum range can reach 160 kilometers.
However, such a range is still not enough for the F-16 fighter jet to launch missiles on the mainland, which means that the F-16 fighter jet must penetrate at least 50 kilometers deep into Russia before it can launch missiles and shoot down the A-50 early warning aircraft. So I think it is not very likely that the F-16 will shoot down the Russian early warning aircraft.
We analyzed various situations and found that it could not have been shot down by the Patriots, nor by the F-16, nor by Russia itself. So who was the one who shot down the A-50?
Characteristics of Ukrainian S-200 surface-to-air missiles
On February 23, the Ukrainian intelligence service announced the final result. The answer was Ukraine’s S-200 surface-to-air missile.
This answer may be beyond the imagination of viewers, my imagination, and Russia’s imagination.
Currently, Ukraine’s air defense arsenal mainly relies on weapons provided by Europe and the United States, such as the American Patriot, the Italian, German, and French Aster. These missiles have a relatively short range, generally around 100 kilometers.
In addition, Ukraine also has two weapons from the former Soviet Union, namely the S-200 and S-300. We have introduced the S-300 to you many times before. It has many different models. However, the S-300 in the hands of Ukraine was developed during the former Soviet Union. The earliest model S-300P can launch missiles with a relatively limited range. The range does not exceed 75 kilometers.
But there is also such a missile, the S-200. The S-200 is an anti-aircraft missile developed by the Soviet Union in the 1960s. The Ukrainian Air Force inherited hundreds of such missiles, but all were retired around 2013. According to a report by the US “Forbes”, during the Ukrainian war, Ukraine took out the S-200 missiles from the warehouse, modified them and used them in actual combat.
We can see that the launch vehicle of the S-200 does not have a launch box. The missile is mounted directly on the vehicle frame, similar to the Eagle anti-aircraft missiles of Taiwan and the United States. Later missiles, whether Patriot or THAAD, are all equipped Missile launch box, which is more convenient for maintenance and installation.
The first feature of the S-200 is its huge size. Its missile is 10.6 meters long, has a radius of 0.86 meters, a wingspan of 2.9 meters, and the entire missile weighs 2.8 tons.
Let’s make a comparison. The Patriot missile is almost smaller than it, with a length of only 5.31 meters and a diameter of only 25.5 centimeters, which is one-third of the S-200. The total weight of Patriot III is only more than 300 kilograms, and the weight of Patriot II can reach 900 kilograms.
The reason why the S-200 is so huge and heavy is because we want the S-200 to fly higher and farther. As an anti-aircraft missile from the 1960s, the S-200 has a maximum firing height of 40,000 meters, and its effective range can reach more than 200 kilometers or even 400 kilometers depending on the version.
The main reason why the S-200 has such a long range and a very high shooting height is that one of the main targets of the Soviet Union in developing this weapon was the American Blackbird reconnaissance aircraft. The top speed of the Blackbird reconnaissance aircraft can reach Mach 3.3, and the maximum ceiling can reach 26,000 meters. The Soviet fighter jets at that time could not keep up with the speed first. The Blackbird disappeared without a trace as soon as it accelerated. The second height could not keep up. , taking the MiG-19 as an example, its maximum ceiling is only 18,000 meters.
Therefore, at that time, the United States dispatched Blackbird reconnaissance aircraft to conduct frequent reconnaissance in the Soviet Union, which became a very troublesome matter for the Soviet Union, so the S-200 came into being. The early S-200 had a very simple guidance method. The terminal used radio command guidance and the terminal used active radar guidance. The advantage of active radar guidance is that the terminal can improve accuracy and does not require continuous radar illumination. This is one of the reasons why Ukraine was able to successfully attack this time.
Ukraine modified the S-200 in the 1960s, and its most important modification is probably the addition of the American GPS positioning system. Last year, media reports pointed out that Ukraine used modified S-200s to launch long-range attacks on the Crimean Bridge.
Review of the incident in which S-200 shot down an A-50 early warning aircraft
This long-range attack in Ukraine was carefully planned. The S-200’s propulsion method is very special. Each missile has four solid-fuel strap-on rockets. Let’s look carefully at this picture of the S-200. There are four rockets tied to the four sides of the entire missile body. These four rockets are solid fuel rockets. When the missile is first launched, these four rockets burn and provide extremely powerful thrust. , after the fuel is exhausted, the four rocket boosters fall off, and the missile activates its own rocket engine. However, the rocket engine of the S-200 turns out to be a liquid engine, with a duration of 51 to 150 seconds.
Liquid rocket engine is the first generation of rocket engine technology. Its maintenance is quite complicated and troublesome. Liquid is usually injected into the engine before launch. This also means that the reaction time of the S-200 is longer than that of other missiles. This is also an important reason why the S-200 missile is slowly being eliminated by history. There are problems with its maintenance and reaction time.
In other words, if you want to use the S-200 missile, you need a lot of preparation time, ranging from half an hour to an hour. In modern air defense warfare it is no longer applicable. For example, when your radar detects a Russian fighter jet, the S-200 missile battalion begins to enter combat mode and injects fuel into it. By the time your missile is ready, the enemy fighter jet may have already left the battlefield. Therefore, it is not difficult to understand that Ukraine retired all S-200 missiles in 2013.
However, AWACS is different. AWACS flies in the sky 24 hours a day, and even the flight trajectory of AWACS may be fixed. This time, the Ukrainian intelligence department also announced the patrol route of the A-50 AWACS, which almost follows the route of Russia and Ukraine. The battle lines between the two sides, a parallel line of more than 200 kilometers, are moving back and forth repeatedly. Once it takes off, it is normal for it to stay in the sky for eight or 12 hours until the next early warning aircraft comes to take over.
This is an extremely good target for Ukraine. It seems that Ukraine is fully able to detect aircraft activities along the Russian border through long-range radar.
After detecting the A-50 early warning aircraft taking off and patrolling along the predetermined route, Ukraine began to mobilize the prepared S-200 air defense missiles. After half an hour or even an hour of preparation, after determining the orientation and distance of the early warning aircraft, Launched an S-200 missile and shot down a Russian A-50 early warning aircraft.
However, the job of the early warning aircraft is to monitor enemy fighter jets and various incoming missiles. The shooting down of the A-50 early warning aircraft proved that the Russian Air Force lacked the ability to effectively intercept enemy missiles. Judging from the scene footage, the A-50 early warning aircraft began to continuously fire thermal bombs one minute before it was hit, because the radar of the early warning aircraft had detected the incoming target.
Early models of the S-200 can reach speeds of Mach 4, and later models can reach speeds of Mach 6 to Mach 8. If we calculate based on Mach 6 and fly for 1 minute, that is 124 kilometers.
In other words, when the missile was 120 to 150 kilometers away from the A-50 early warning aircraft, the Russian early warning aircraft had already discovered the target, but it had no way to intercept it. It could only act like an ant on a hot pot and constantly change its flight. trajectory, and threw completely useless thermal bombs. After throwing the thermal bombs for 1 minute, he was still hit by the S-200 missile. Watching the video, I thought about how desperate the crew members were during that minute.
This would never happen in the United States. After the early warning aircraft discovers the target, it forms a network with the ground air defense forces or airborne fighter jets through a data link, and transmits the target information to other units for interception. For example, this time in the Red Sea, the American F/A-18 “Super Hornet” launched missiles to intercept cruise missiles. The Navy can launch Standard 3, Standard 2 or even Standard 6 to intercept targets, and there are Patriots and THAAD on land. Responsible for protection.
I don’t know where the problem lies in Russia. Russia’s electronics industry and information management system are extremely backward. It may be that there is no complete and effective data link and information sharing system. Even if the A-50 finds the target, other units will not Unable to respond effectively. The second possibility is that Russian ground air defense forces also tried to intercept and launch missiles, but the interception failed. This is not surprising. Russia has a big problem with intercepting the Storm Shadow cruise missile, which has a speed of only subsonic. Now it is not surprising that it cannot intercept the S-200 missile with a speed of Mach 4.
So if we review the whole process of the downing of the Russian A-50 early warning aircraft, we will find that there are huge problems in the entire Russian air force system. The early warning aircraft is originally the core of an air force and is under strict protection at all levels. However, an early warning aircraft more than 200 kilometers away from the front line was shot down by a Ukrainian S-200 missile from 50 years ago. I can only say that this is a huge shame for the Russian Aerospace Forces.
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