2023-07-08 23:35:33
No sooner had Wagner’s private military forces settled in their exile, which was revealed to be an abandoned camp for the Belarusian army, hastily prepared to host its fighters, than news emerged that the Belarusian President, Alexander Lukashenko, had asked them to train his country’s armed forces. This news has reasons and indications, the most important of which is that these forces, on which Russian President Vladimir Putin relied to achieve victories for his country in its war on Ukraine, and before that paving the way for extending its international influence, were not sent to this exile to retire, but rather that future roles may await them. If the agreement between Putin and Wagner, which ended the rebellion of this group, stipulated that it maintain its fighting strength to maintain its combat fitness, with the possibility of continuing training in new weapons, then there is a danger that it will turn into an army under The request is resorted to by countries or regimes that see it as support in their internal war or military operations and external wars.
In this context, we can examine the significance of the statement of the group’s commander, Yevgeny Prigozhin, days after he left the Russian city of Rostov, which he seized within hours, that his forces “are the most experienced in Russia and perhaps in the world.” This statement is almost tantamount to marketing his forces and offering their services to whoever pays. He did not forget to add information about its experience in international battlefields and its victories in Ukraine, as he said that his group “carries out many tasks for Russia, in Africa, Arab countries and other regions.” There was also news that Putin gave the group a choice between leaving for Belarus, joining the Russian forces, or returning its members to their homes, but the group preferred to preserve its entity by gathering within one camp that guarantees it survival as a striking force that maintains its combat level, and perhaps the ability to plan for the day. the next. And through knowledge of the nature of the special military forces similar to “Wagner”, we can anticipate the form of the next day that these forces maintain their readiness to be ready for, which is the transition to new fronts.
It seems that the Wagner Group will remain as it is, and its fate will not be resolved, nor will it suffer from disruption.
In terms of the Russian official position on the fate of the group, it became clear that the Kremlin had no intention of getting rid of it by assassinating its leaders and dispersing its members, but rather perhaps weakening it and making it more pliant and saving it for a day when its services are needed. The hint that Wagner would continue to exist came from a high level in the Kremlin, from the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, himself, who spoke about its branches in the world, and about its sole decision-making regarding the future of these branches, especially in Africa. “The fate of the arrangements between African countries and the Wagner Group is first and foremost a matter for the governments of the countries concerned whether they will continue this type of cooperation or not,” Lavrov said.
So, it seems that this group will remain as it is, and its fate will not be disbanded, nor will it suffer from disruption. If Moscow sensed an imminent danger from it, then Minsk might see an opportunity in it. The Belarusian president’s request to train his forces is not far from conciliatory, especially when he said about them that they were “people who fought all over the world to establish a civilization.” Perhaps the man planned to make his country an international position by possessing power, as is the case with Russia and its president, Putin, who wanted by invading Ukraine to establish his country as a pole parallel to the American pole. And Lukashenko, who announced in mid-May that his country had received nuclear weapons from Russia, and boasted of its power, which he said was three times greater than the two bombs dropped on Japan, he would be grateful if he integrated the reasons for power through Wagner, which would train his army and might provide services. Others increase this power. Can Minsk follow in the footsteps of Moscow / and search for a place under the sun, through the “Wagner” force that is ready to work on any front, especially Latvia, Estonia and Poland, which have expressed fear of the arrival of “Wagner” in neighboring Belarus. For this matter, Lukashenko may forget the danger posed by “Wagner” to Putin, in exchange for the glories he promises himself to achieve for him.
Lukashenko may forget the danger posed by “Wagner” to Putin, in exchange for the glories he promises himself to achieve for him.
As for America, which is now adopting proxy wars, or the so-called fourth generation wars, there has been speculation about the possibility of a role for it in the “Wagner” rebellion. Analysts have linked a secret visit, details of which were revealed by the “Washington Post”, to the director of the CIA to Ukraine last month (June), and the stimulus for the rebellion, so can Washington recruit elements from “Wagner” to perform missions in regions in The world, taking advantage of news of the Kremlin’s intention to dry up the group’s funding sources? This intention, which became clear after the “Wall Street Journal” recently quoted Western officials as saying that Putin seeks to control more than a hundred companies affiliated with Wagner, and revealed that the Russian security services raided its affiliated institutions. Washington may do it, which recruited the “Blackwater” special forces in Iraq and elsewhere.
With the loss of some countries’ right, or their monopoly, to use legitimate violence in favor of militias, such as “Wagner” and its sisters from “Rapid Support” in Sudan and others, especially with the decline in the role of the state that we are witnessing in our Arab countries and other countries, the shares of these militias will increase and their importance will increase. Instead of states using militias when needed, they may force states to wage wars to employ their elements, at which point the risk increases and fears grow that the state will wither away and militia states will prevail, which means, in the end, the rule of chaos.
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