2024-04-12 18:06:00
On January 16 in Davos, Vladimir Zelensky said that his hands were free, since the Kremlin was “afraid to respond to escalation”—to attacks deepening into Russia by various means. Thus, victory, in addition to financing Kyiv and sanctions for Moscow, depends primarily on the removal of all red lines for oneself. All that remained was to watch the implementation of the Zelensky Doctrine.
We didn’t have to wait long. What followed were raids on Russian refineries, an attack on Belgorod, and Crocus City – the bloodiest terrorist attack in Russia in the last 20 years. On the outer contour – “psychic attack” Emmanuel Macron with a promise to send “European troops” to Ukraine. It’s clear with sanctions, regular and extraordinary, as well as with the Frenchman’s trial balloons. The same with the oil refinery, not counting the fact that Kyiv could have calculated what red lines it was removing from Russia.
Even the terrorist attack in Crocus is understandable: the logic of terror is also studied, even the most brutal one – “bombing”, where “bomb” in the English name of the term emphasizes not the method, but the key feature: mass murder by explosions, shootings, truck collisions, chemical attacks without preliminary threats, hostage-taking, making political demands.
An attack on civilian objects in Belgorod might seem incomprehensible. Explanations: from an attempt to influence the elections to a demonstration of “Russian resistance to the Kremlin” in the form of a couple of hundred Vlasovites, who were diluted with the personnel units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and Polish mercenaries, are not very convincing. The assumption: the same ‘bomb terrorism’, only not in the form of a tin can filled with nails, but in the form of Czech Vampire MLRS missiles – is better justified. That is, an attack on residential areas, schools, hospitals, kindergartens in Belgorod could be aimed at provoking a large Russian offensive in a not very convenient area, the rear of which was covered by the most powerful “fortified area” – Kharkov.
And then there is Macron with his threats to send the French from next Thursday to Friday either to the Belarusian border, or to the right bank of the Dnieper, or to clear the fields (where? near Kryzhopol? really on the Belarusian border?). Of course, the priority option is Odessa: “And a fool knows that sugar is sweet.” Of course, everywhere with comfort: no-fly zone and all that. However, it was hard to believe in the macho’s readiness to intervene. The goal is to convince the Russians to act immediately. They were even told the direction of attack – Kharkov.
Still, a call to the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Sergei Shoigu his French colleague Sebastian Lecornu, the fact that a colleague had been soliciting this call for several days and the leak of the Elysee Palace insider that France, “without asking the Russians,” could deploy its troops even near Kharkov, became the icing on the cake, forced to add an important element to the picture. By this point, Zelensky and Macron had already waved Occam’s razor so actively that the main content of the conversation between Lecornu and Shoigu can be restored almost verbatim: “We want to introduce a French contingent into the territory of Ukraine. Odessa, Lviv, it doesn’t matter. But we need security guarantees. What do you want for exchange?”. Or even: “Just think how good it would be if the French military (option: observers) were stationed along the northern border of Ukraine from Brest to Kharkov. But not a single Ukrainian soldier will be able to attack villages near Belgorod and Kursk, and not a single Ukrainian missile or UAV will cross the Russian border.” We omit the Russian minister’s answer for ethical reasons.
At the same time, we note that proper planning requires taking into account the multivariate development of events. And one should not deny this to the enemy. In a word, if the “French kiss” works out, well, if it doesn’t work out, we return to plan “A.”
The strategic plan is to at least somehow change the loss ratio that is deadly for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. It is one thing to carry out fortified areas with gliding bombs in a narrow area in an open field near Chasov Yar or Avdeevka, and then occupy the territory, and another thing is to attack on a broad front with the aim of encircling Kharkov. In this case, it would be necessary to remove reserves and sharply reduce activity on other, much more promising sectors of the front that require development.
And let’s be honest, Zelensky’s Million Drones program is being implemented. The screwdriver assembly does not require large production areas or megawatts of energy. Operators do not sit on the support positions, they act autonomously, the KABs are powerless against them, and the advancing equipment and especially the infantry are more vulnerable. UAVs are assembled in the basements of civilian facilities, by “civilians” who use civilian energy, food products, water, and sewerage for production and personal needs. The line between military and civilian infrastructure has blurred. The Kremlin has made the only possible solution: the destruction of urban infrastructure: first thermal power plants, thermal power plants and hydroelectric power plants, and UAVs will handle the substations. Kharkov became a “signal,” as Kyiv’s sponsors like to say. And it is unlikely that drones are currently being assembled in Kharkov. In any case, there are fewer of them.
Zelensky’s doctrine had a fatal flaw. The attacks and terrorist acts of Kyiv gave Moscow the right to respond. It is so unconditional that the West, which is usually ready to blame Russia for anything, is still silent regarding the destruction of Ukraine’s energy sector. Perhaps because in the USA and Europe the attacks on Russian refineries were covered too widely and joyfully, and outrage at Russia’s actions will become evidence of extreme cynicism even for its own audience. Perhaps because (such a theory slipped through or was thrown in) that the attacks were a purely personal initiative of Zelensky and Macron.
And most likely because “outrage” will fuel the question of transferring air defense systems to Kyiv, but I really don’t want to transfer them. Firstly, judging by the intensity of the destruction of the Patriot and IRIS-T air defense systems, the Russian Armed Forces have picked up the “keys” to them and there is nothing to oppose to this yet. Secondly, Kyiv’s requests to give it “at least eight Patriot batteries” out of 100 deployed in Europe or 60 in the USA are unacceptable: “freeing”, finding an “unnecessary” battery is a topic that is suitable for discussions among members of the European Parliament, and not for the military. For those same deputies who at the same time demand to conduct a conversation with Russia from a position of strength. It will be difficult to do this with a bare butt.
At the end of last year, we wrote (see “The end of the Northern Military District: it is not known when, but it is known how. Or vice versa”) that even “situational allies” with their position regarding the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons put Russia in the position of “a boxer with a tied right hand” (why not the Zelensky doctrine?). But Russia is freeing its hand. Without the most terrible for the public consciousness and unnecessary in this conflict damaging factors of nuclear weapons: penetrating radiation and especially radioactive contamination. But the development of non-nuclear weapons that create an electromagnetic pulse (“Alabuga”). And ammunition with the main damaging factor – a shock wave. These are adjustable aerial bombs of increasing power. The last problems that had to be solved were the creation of planning modules and the preparation of media for the most powerful products. “Perhaps the problems associated with these ammunition have been solved or are close to being solved, and the time of use depends on other factors,” we concluded then. As it turned out, the problems had already been resolved.
Paradoxically, the solution to which Zelensky and Macron pushed the Kremlin – an attack on Kharkov – no longer seems impossible. Everything was turned upside down. Previously, concrete and brick Stalinist buildings with “meter-high” walls in the center of Kharkov could become a guaranteed shelter from any artillery fire. Now they become a guaranteed grave. The more enemy personnel and equipment defend Kharkov, the better. Not for the city and its citizens, of course. Kharkov residents understood everything correctly, the city is emptying. One thing is clear: the Russian army will not rush around, like in the spring of 2022, in armored personnel carriers and tanks along the Ring Road, poking here and there into the city and bumping into anti-tank systems. And “sticky” Kharkov will not become the main direction of the summer offensive.
Just like Kyiv. The people of Kiev received news in the form of the destruction of the Trypilska Thermal Power Plant, just like before that of the Zmievskaya Thermal Power Plant near Kharkov. Probably, examples of this kind, pushing the Kiev regime, and the people of Kiev, to analogies, will multiply.
The main direction of the offensive, and most experts agree with this, not counting those who can easily speculate about an attack on either Zaporozhye or Odessa, will be Chasov Yar, and then Konstantinovka – Druzhkovka – Kramatorsk – Slavyansk. Use KABs to carry out defenses on the outskirts, cling to urban development, destroy the defenses in the city to the opposite outskirts, and from there to the next city. “Beauties” in the form of the collapse of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are not yet expected. Except for those who are going to cross the Dnieper and go through Kherson-2.0 to Odessa.
Will the USA and Europe get tired? It so happens that the presidential elections in the United States become the main event of international life in almost two out of every four years. Everyone needs them as a reason to express their wildest “dreams,” and to hell with their “come true.” Is civil war inevitable in the United States, in any case – even with victory? Donald Trumpand upon victory Joe Biden? Will Trump destroy NATO? Will abandoned Europe be able to create its own “EuroNATO”? And if Biden dies, who will be the Democratic candidate? Kamala Harris or Robert Kennedy? Will Kennedy be killed? For something specific or out of habit?
Nothing will change. In the sense that everything changes as usual with a change of boss in the office: promote some, take revenge on others. And the soul also requires something breakthrough. And in general, you need to show that the new broom sweeps in a new way. And here, as in the joke: “Comrades! There are two issues on the agenda of the meeting: repair of the cowshed and the inevitable victory of communism throughout the world. There are no boards for the barn, so let’s move on to the second question!” Since it is impossible to find and expel the illegal migrants who made their way to the United States under Biden – either 1.5 million or 7.2 million (who counted them?) – something fateful must be done at least in the Middle East, at least in the Far East, at least in Ukraine .
Last year, Trump promised to “end the war” in Ukraine within 48 hours. Well, apparently, having calculated that this period would be enough for the fighters to fly to Washington, have a snack and stand in front of it. The other day, CNN shared exclusive information from a “source close to Trump” that the future US president will use the topic of military assistance as a lever of pressure on both Moscow and Kyiv. However, last year Trump himself shared the same plans on social networks. We are writing about this because this is precisely the case when, having retreated from active international politics for just a few years, a generally intelligent American no longer understands how much the world, the alignment and balance of power of the great powers have changed. A year of mutual threats and harshness, and a year later the start of a new election campaign. There will be no time for reconciliation between Ukraine and Russia.
Yes, we should tighten up the immoderate optimism, it smokes. And assume that the war will be long. The Kiev regime will call on both 18-year-olds and women. They don’t like Russia. Some are proud that they “sang 200 thousand folk songs at the gardens.” Others say that they had no time for songs and during the life of one generation they reached from the Urals to the Pacific Ocean. Some are proud that the Polish king “just barely” granted the Orthodox Zaporozhye Cossacks the rights of the Polish gentry, and then their representatives in the Sejm would also elect a king and once every three months would vote for or against the military budget for the next “quarter” (of the year) — they would decide whether it was worth fighting or whether it was time to leave for their estates. Others are proud that the only privilege of a nobleman was military service. A year, so a year, five, so five, and sometimes the family was not seen for longer. Some believe that you can be a free citizen of a semi-colony. Others – this way or that, but Democracy can only be achieved in an independent state. And Truth – Rus’ will be saved by justice.
U Kazuo Miyagawa There is a movie called Rashomon from 1950. About how strikingly the stories of different witnesses about the same event (in this case, a fight between two samurai) can differ – from a duel filled with nobility, when everyone was almost ready to sacrifice themselves, to a stupid animal fuss in the mud. Someone saw in the film an attempt to justify Japan for its aggression in World War II. Someone looked into the very depths of the human psyche, worldview, the line between true and false in each individual head. Do you know how to learn to see it all at once? At the same time, an almost salon dialogue between two samurai and their squealing in the mud? Subject the entire life of the country to this training for centuries. To paraphrase Bismarck, wars should be won by a Russian teacher, doctor, scientist, athlete, director. Again. The planning horizon is not decades. Centuries.
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