2023-06-13 18:31:27
ShareThe ruble ended the main trading session on the stock exchange on Tuesday, June 13, falling by 2% against the dollar and by 2.2% against the euro, which is really a lot for one day. And if we saw the “European” at today’s levels (91 rubles) a couple of months ago, the “American” rose above 84 rubles for the first time since the beginning of April last year. Today’s exchange rates are generally higher than they were before the events of February 24, 2022. Fontanka learned from analysts what is happening and what ranges this will lead the ruble to in the near future.
The fall of the ruble occurred without visible eventual prerequisites, as if out of the blue, which makes you look around and think about what factors, in principle, can now influence the exchange rate. The chief economist of Alfa-Bank, Natalia Orlova, does not rule out that the exchange rate of the Russian national currency went down simply because of low liquidity, against which the purchase of foreign currency by market players in large amounts has such an effect.
“The downward movement, I think, will still occur, because, of course, our import volumes will recover and export volumes will not grow against this background, so the trade surplus is shrinking. This is some kind of trajectory,” says the analyst. Therefore, according to her, the weakening in itself in the face of a worsening trade surplus is natural, it is surprising why it turned out to be so sharp.
The Bank of Russia constantly draws attention to the fact that the ruble exchange rate is floating. To a greater extent, it is now influenced by exports and imports. The predominance of the first over the second is called a trade surplus. Now the situation is as follows: exports are declining, imports are recovering, the difference between the first and second is shrinking. So, according to the Central Bank, in April 2023 foreign trade surplus narrowed by 37.4% mom and by 74.7% year on year. In January-April, the indicator decreased by 68% compared to the same period last year. The main Russian export product is hydrocarbons, and the world has fallen on hard times for them.
Analyst FG “Finam” Alexander Potavin connects today’s significant weakening of the ruble with the collapse in oil prices, which is observed at the beginning of the week. Oil benchmark Brent is trading near the levels of annual lows – $ 72 per barrel.
“For the Russian currency, it is now important that the prices for export Urals oil remain low, the budget revenues of the Russian Federation are weak, geopolitical news is still disturbing, and the EU is preparing a new (
So far, we see that budget oil and gas revenues have fallen from 647.5 billion rubles in April to 570.7 billion in May. At the same time, the average price of Urals fell from $58.63 in April to $53.34 per barrel in May. Year-on-year changes were 16.9% and 32.3%, respectively.
“The ruble was under pressure from a combination of factors. First, since June 7, within the new reporting period, the Ministry of Finance has been selling more yuan than before from the NWF. This is done in order to smooth out lost income from export companies. Secondly, oil price volatility also has an impact. In addition, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation at a meeting on Friday did not raise the key rate, but noted a number of pro-inflationary factors and the corresponding risks, Alexander Dzhioev, an analyst at Alfa Capital, recalls. “Next week another tax season starts in the Russian Federation, which can support the position of the ruble.”
“The growth of currencies in early June was due to a decrease in supply due to the traditional low sales of foreign exchange earnings by exporters at the beginning of the month. In the second half, we expect a return of such sales, which will help the ruble to strengthen. The head of the Bank of Russia at the last meeting said that exporters are selling 78% of foreign exchange earnings, which can significantly affect the ruble exchange rate, said Daniil Bolotskikh, an analyst at Tsifra Broker. – Regarding today’s growth, we can assume that with the advent of the holiday season, individuals began to buy foreign currency, due to which there is an increased demand. Foreign exit companies are now limited to $1 billion a month in purchases, so we don’t expect demand growth from them.”
The last time currencies went up sharply, and the ruble went down in early April 2023. Some reacted to this event so nervously that they lined up at the exchanger. Nevertheless, by the end of the month, the rate corrected and a short rollback followed. It could be assumed that this will happen again, but, as Bolotskikh explains, then the situation was atypical for the market: “Foreign exchange earnings are received by exporters with a delay of up to three months. Due to the failure in exports at the beginning of the year, a sharp reduction in the supply of foreign currency caused an increase in April. In February-March, exports began to recover, and thanks to this, we saw a rollback to 75 rubles per dollar.
It is not easy to say where the dollar and the euro will roll back now. There is a lot of volatility in the market. Only in December the dollar was at 60 rubles, now it’s already at 84. By the way, this is all about the nominal rate, but not only does it make somersaults. The real effective exchange rate of the ruble against the currencies of Russia’s main trading partners increased by 3.1% in May, taking into account inflation, but has been declining in all previous months. As a result, since the beginning of the year, the indicator has gone negative by 18%, follows from the data of the Central Bank. The real exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar increased by 2.3% in May and fell by 17.5% since January. Against the euro, it fell by 2.9% and 19.5%, respectively.
In the short term, the probable correction range for the dollar is in the range of 75-83 rubles, Alexander Dzhioev believes. Daniil Bolotskikh on the same horizon does not expect growth above 85.5 rubles per dollar.
“Given that the oil market is now playing out the theme of weakening demand for oil against the backdrop of a cooling global economy, perhaps in the summer – in the fall we will expect even lower energy prices, which means a weaker ruble exchange rate. In the future this summer, the dollar exchange rate may rise to the region of 85 rubles, and the euro exchange rate to the region of 92 rubles,” predicts Alexander Potavin.
According to Natalia Orlova, rollbacks to 82 rubles are possible, but in the future, currencies will show even higher values than we see now. No, according to her, it will not reach the conditional 100 rubles per dollar. Not so harsh.
Evgenia Gorbunova, Fontanka.ru
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