2023-08-22 07:36:22
The price of a liter at the pump has increased by “a good fifteen cents” since June as wanted by the OPEC countries which have reduced their supply for this purpose, notes the professor of economic history Philippe Chalmin . However, he doubts that the symbolic threshold of 2 euros per liter will be exceeded by September.
“Barring geopolitical or other disaster, I do not think the rise we have just experienced will continue in the coming weeks”, analysis Tuesday, August 22 on franceinfo Philippe Chalmin, professor of economic history at Paris-Dauphine University. While fuel prices continue to rise (€1.83 per liter of diesel and €1.91 per liter of unleaded 95 E10 on average), the raw materials and energy specialist estimates that “temporarily, we can think that we are not far from the ceiling”.
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In recent weeks, the price of refueling has increased due to the “roughly parallel rise in the price of a barrel of oil”continues Philippe Chalmin: “We had gone a little below $75 a barrel at the end of June. A week ago the price of a barrel of Brent peaked at $88, last night we were at $85. So roughly we took between $10 and $15 per barrel and we end up with a good fifteen cents more per liter at the pump”.
Supply reduction likely to continue into September
If the request has “returned to pre-2019 levels”, it is above all on the supply side that we must seek explanations for the rise. For Philippe Chalmin, “producers wanted to raise prices, so they played on quantities. The leader of OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries), Saudi Arabia, decided unilaterally from July 1 to reduce its supply 1 million barrels per day. The world market is around 100 million barrels per day. So it still played out in July”.
This situation could even continue in the near future since the country has decided to “continue this reduction in August, they will probably do so in September. According to the International Energy Agency, the market, which was rather in surplus, would have become in deficit in the second half of 2023 and therefore more fragile.
However, the specialist “do not think” that the price of a barrel of Brent will continue to soar to exceed 100 dollars. “We are in a phase of digestion. The real question will be in September whether Saudi Arabia continues to restrict its production and what Russia will do”. Regarding prices at the pump, “that means that normally we should perhaps not, at least by the end of August or the beginning of September, break the other symbolic threshold, that of 2 euros per liter”.
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