2023-04-25 17:26:34
Consumer confidence in the United States fell more sharply than expected in April, in particular under the effect of medium-term confidence and fears of recession, according to the index published on Tuesday by the Conference Board.
Analysts expected a general confidence index reaching 104.1 points but conversely, it fell to 101.3, against 104 points in March, according to the consensus published by briefing.com.
Signs pointing to a recession
“While consumers remain relatively confident about current conditions, their expectations remain low and falling, indicating near-term recession risk,” said Conference Board senior director of economics Ataman Ozyildirim. communicated.
In detail, the index relating to the current economic situation is up to 151.1 points, against 148.9 points a month earlier. Conversely, that measuring the economic outlook fell from 74 points in March to 68.1 points in April, well below the threshold of 80 points, “a level corresponding to the recession”, specifies the Conference Board.
Uncertain forecasts despite lower inflation
“Current data is well below pre-pandemic levels but remains on a positive trend from recent lows,” HFE chief economist Rubeela Farooqi said in a note. “High inflation and rising borrowing costs remain headwinds for consumers. Even so, a strong job market and rising purchasing power with easing price pressure should come in support of the households”, detailed Ms. Farooqi.
Inflation continues to slow in the United States, reaching 5% over one year in March, the lowest for almost two years, according to the CPI index published in mid-April. But the Federal Reserve (Fed) favors another measure, the PCE index, whose figures for March will be released on Friday and which some officials still expect above 4%. A figure still too high compared to its target of 2%, which could push it to increase its rates again, with a negative impact, but intended, on the borrowing capacity of households and businesses.
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