US households face a 7% rise in heating costs this winter, driven by supply disruptions from the Iran conflict.
The impact varies sharply by region and fuel type, with heating oil users in the Northeast and Alaska confronting steeper increases, according to a report from the National Energy Assistance Directors Association.
The report highlights a growing affordability crisis as global fuel supplies tighten due to refinery shutdowns in the Middle East and Russia. This comes as one in six US households are already behind on utility payments, collectively owing about $23bn.
Heating Oil Costs Rise Due to Supply Chain Pressures
- Heating oil costs in the Northeast to jump 16.9%, with some households facing a 70% increase to $2,977.
- Global supply chain pressures from the wars are elevating prices across all fuel types.
- The crisis is prompting policy interventions, including a release from the Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve.
Regional Disparities in Heating Cost Increases
The Northeast will see the most significant impact, with average heating bills projected to rise 16.9%, or $221, from $1,311 last winter to $1,532 this winter. The region’s reliance on heating oil and high electricity prices make it particularly vulnerable. Daily Hampshire Gazette reports the average heating oil price in Massachusetts reached $6.21 per gallon last month, up from a year ago.
For US households using heating oil, the situation is dire. The National Energy Assistance Directors Association (Neada) projects their seasonal costs could jump 70%, to approximately $2,977. In Maine, the statewide average for heating oil hit a record $6.04 per gallon on October 19, an 83% increase from the same time last year, The Maine Wire noted.
Macro-Economic Factors Driving Prices
The price surge stems from global supply disruptions. Refineries in the Middle East and Russia have shut down or cut production amid the US-Israel war with Iran and Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine.
“The situation in the strait of Hormuz remains highly volatile,” said Mark Wolfe, executive director of Neada. “For planning purposes, we believe it is prudent to assume that heating oil prices will remain elevated throughout the winter heating season.”
The volatility is also evident in local markets. In Western New York, home heating oil prices reached $6.56 per gallon on Oct. 26, up about 33% from August, according to Press & Sun-Bulletin. This “flippy-floppy” market, as one local supplier described it, reflects the uncertainty in global oil markets.
| Heating Fuel Type | Projected Cost Change | 2025-2026 Average Cost |
|---|---|---|
| Heating Oil (Northeast) | +16.9% | $1,532 |
| Electric Heating | +6% | $1,215 |
| Propane | +5% | $1,350 |
Consumer and Policy Response
For low- and middle-income families, these increases can be devastating. “Families are already struggling with rising costs for food, housing and other necessities,” Wolfe said. “Adding hundreds or even thousands of dollars to their winter heating bills will push many of them further into debt.”
Some consumers are adapting by seeking alternative heating methods. Dennis Carr, of Cummington, needs about three deliveries a winter, costing him $900 a season total, and has started picking up wooden pallets to burn to save a little money. “I wish I had a heat pump, but I can’t afford it,” he said, highlighting the financial barrier to more efficient technology.
In response to the crisis, policymakers are stepping in. The Trump administration released 315,000 barrels of heating oil from the Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve in September following a September request from Sens. Susan Collins (R) and Angus King (I). The release was equivalent to a 13% increase in New England’s heating oil supply.
“Energy is not a luxury. Families need to be able to heat their homes without worrying about whether they can afford food, medicine or rent.”
Mark Wolfe, executive director of Neada, made that call for congressional relief as winter bills loom. His organization urges immediate action to prevent a surge in utility disconnections, following a record-hot summer that saw utilities disconnected power to 173,598 households across 10 states despite dangerous temperatures. The financial and human cost of this winter's energy crisis shows that governments and industry must coordinate a response.
Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
