The attack at Silver Rail Elementary School in Oregon marked the 149th school shooting in the United States this year, according to data tracked by David Riedman.
David Riedman tracks the 149th school shooting in Oregon
Data scientist David Riedman, who maintains the K-12 School Shooting Database, recorded the incident in Oregon as the 149th school shooting in the United States for 2026. Riedman defines a school shooting as any instance when a gun is fired, brandished with intent to harm, or a bullet strikes school property for any reason, regardless of the time of day, day of the week, or the number of victims.
At this current rate, the total number of incidents by the end of 2026 is projected to continue a decrease seen in recent years. Riedman’s tallies indicate there were 235 school shootings in 2025 and 336 in 2024, a downward trajectory that aligns with broader declining rates of crime and gun violence nationwide. Despite these lower annual counts, current figures remain considerably higher than the average of about 80 per year recorded in the five-year period before the Covid-19 pandemic.
Rising Near-Misses and Averted Attacks.
Near-misses and averted attacks increase in 2026
While actual shootings have dropped lately, statistics involving what Riedman terms “near-misses” are increasing at a significant rate. These incidents encompass attempts at violence that stall after a person had pointed a gun or fired initial shots—such as when a firearm jams or an assault is successfully intercepted. For example, a principal in Oklahoma intervened in April by tackling a would-be shooter who entered a high school and attempted to shoot two students.
Riedman compares the tracking of these unfulfilled attempts to safety protocols in commercial aviation, noting that investigators learn a tremendous amount from studying close calls because they happen far more frequently than actual crashes. Studying these stalled events aids authorities in figuring out how to prevent tragedies like the incident in Bend, Oregon, which resulted in the deaths of three pupils and a teacher.
The concept of near-miss reporting is what has made commercial aviation so much safer because it’s those almost-crashes that you end up learning a tremendous amount from because they happen far more than real crashes.
David Riedman, data scientist
Community members stop nearly 250 school attacks
On a more encouraging note, Riedman’s records show that almost 250 school attacks have been successfully averted since 2018. These potential shootings were stopped after community members, relatives, or classmates noticed warning signs and took proactive steps before an assailant could act.
Community Perception and Safety Realities.
Ron Avi Astor studies public perception of school safety
Ron Avi Astor, a professor at U.C.L.A. who has researched school safety for more than 30 years, points out that while counting failed attempts is crucial, public perception is heavily influenced by how culture and news media respond to mass shootings. Astor compares mass shootings to terrorism, noting the constant stream of news coverage that bombards students.
When students in California and various other states are asked whether their school is safe, they generally answer affirmatively, according to Astor. However, when asked what their greatest fear is, students frequently cite getting shot at school. While day-to-day violence is largely decreasing, widespread news coverage of mass shootings generates a persistent ripple of fear through communities.
Riedman also cautioned observers against reading too deeply into a single set of numbers, describing definitions of school shootings as “messy” ways to describe gun violence at schools.
