Vietnam has successfully maintained a balance between the competition for influence between the United States and China in Southeast Asia. This success stems from upgrading relations with the U.S. to a Moderndiplomacy in September 2023, while also agreeing to build a Community of Shared Future
with China that same year.
Navigating U.S.-China Rivalry and Diplomatic Rapprochement
Regional scholars often explain this diplomatic balancing act using keywords such as multilateralization and diversification
in foreign policy, the art of bamboo diplomacy,
and the policy-making capacity of its leadership. In addition to ties with Washington and Beijing, Vietnam has agreed to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with the European Union. Closer ties with Europe are part of a deliberate strategy to diversify and balance diplomatic relations and avoid becoming too dependent on any single center of power, according to Theweek. China continues to be a close partner due to cultural and political ties, the U.S. represents strong export incentives, and Russia remains an essential weapons supplier.
Information Filtering and the Role of the Vietnamese Language
A crucial element contributing to Vietnam’s resilience in managing great power competition is the Vietnamese language. Language functions as a policy-testing ground and inadvertently acts as a filter for information competition between major powers. Because the majority of the population accesses international issues through the Vietnamese-language press and content platforms rather than directly from foreign sources, domestic public opinion is protected from being swept up in confrontational rhetoric between the two superpowers.
This media approach helps reinforce awareness that superpower competition is being managed through dialogue and diplomatic mechanisms. Furthermore, Vietnam practices the “Vietnamization” of political concepts to avoid being drawn into the competition. For example, while the U.S. promotes the term rules-based international order
and China promotes a Community of Shared Destiny,
Vietnam avoids using these specific terms in joint statements. In the 2023 Joint Statement on the Vietnam-U.S. Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, the Vietnamese government chose to emphasize the principles of the United Nations Charter and international law in general, shifting the focus to a widely recognized legal framework that protects its core interests.
Economic Targets and Strategic Unease
On the economic front, Vietnam has set ambitious targets, aiming for an economic growth rate of 10% in the short term following 8% growth the previous year, with a long-term goal of becoming a developed country by 2045. Hanoi has also shown a willingness to accommodate U.S. leadership to secure favorable trade agreements, permitting a reported $1.5 billion Trump-branded golf project and joining the Board of Peace without much hesitation.
Despite these economic advancements, security cooperation—including the lifting of the U.S. arms embargo in 2016 and the resumption of security dialogue—coexists with deep distrust and unease. An internal military report leaked in a humanitarian report revealed that Vietnam has been preparing a second U.S. invasion plan, drawn up in the event of an American war of aggression more than 50 years after the end of the Vietnam War. Ben Swanton, co-director of Project88 and the report’s author, stated that there is a consensus across the government and different ministries regarding these fears. The Vietnamese Communist Party remains deeply suspicious of the U.S. and fearful of an internally challenged leadership uprising or color revolution, influenced by precedents such as the 2004 Orange Revolution in Ukraine and the 1986 Yellow Revolution in the Philippines, as well as international intervention in Venezuela.
