PostedMay 10, 2022, 6:19 p.m.
Protracted conflict, escalation, martial law or redirection of industrial production to free up resources: for US intelligence, Putin is not about to stop.
According to Avril Haines, Vladimir Putin is “probably counting on a weakening of the resolve of the United States and the European Union when the shortages of food goods and the rise in energy prices will worsen”.
AFP
Vladimir Putin does not intend to limit his desire for occupation to the Donbass region of Ukraine alone, but wants to take the conflict to Transdniestria, a region of Moldova which seceded in 1990, declared on Tuesday during of a hearing in Congress, the head of American intelligence, Avril Haines. “We believe that President Putin is preparing for a protracted conflict in Ukraine, during which he still intends to achieve goals beyond Donbass.”
If it is “possible” that the Russian forces achieve this objective in the coming months, “they will not be able to reach Transdniestrie and include Odessa without decreeing a form of general mobilization”, added Avril Haines. The Russian president “is probably counting on a weakening of the resolve of the United States and the European Union when the shortages of food goods and the rise in energy prices will worsen”.
“They will not be able to reach Transdniestria and include Odessa without decreeing some form of general mobilization.”
Vladimir Putin’s ambitions exceed the capabilities of the Russian military, she said, and that “probably means that we will move in the coming months on a more unpredictable and potentially escalating trajectory.”
More drastic measures
Avril Haines also believes that the current trend increases the chances that President Putin will turn to more drastic measures, including the establishment of martial law, the redirection of industrial production or a potential military escalation, in order to free up resources. necessary to achieve its objectives.
Washington continues to believe that Vladimir Putin will only order the use of nuclear weapons if he perceives “an existential threat to the Russian state or regime”. The master of the Kremlin could nevertheless resort to it if he thought that “he was losing the war in Ukraine” and that NATO was “either intervening or preparing to intervene”, specified the head of American intelligence. . But, even in this hypothesis, “it is likely that he would send signals” before doing so.
(AFP)