Almost five months after the start of the Russian invasion, clashes continue in Ukraine. “Not a day goes by without Russian bombardments,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky lamented. this tuesday july 12. Some, however, see signs of running out of steam on the side of Putin’s army. Indeed, we learned last week that, to complete the ranks, Russian prisoners were conscripted and sent to the front in Ukraine. “It’s a relatively small number,” says former Colonel Roger Housen, with our colleagues from De Morgen. “The Russians are aware that the usefulness of these inmates is limited. You cannot take a criminal out of his cell and expect him to behave like a seasoned soldier.”
Time, the ally of the Russians?
For the Defense specialist, Russia is far from having said its last word. Even more, Mr. Housen fears that Ukraine will face more difficulties in the months to come. “There is a key question in this conflict,” he continues. “It’s about Western solidarity. How strong is it? The midterm elections in the United States in early November will serve as a test. If the Democrats lose control of the House of Representatives, economic and military support to Ukraine could then dry up quickly (…) In Europe too, we will have to see what will happen if we let’s run out of russian gas next winter. Ukraine could then find itself in a very complicated situation. Putin knows this all too well.”
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According to Roger Housen, the Russian president is well aware that time is on his side. “He apparently read War and Peace by Tolstoy, in which it is written that the two most powerful warriors are time and patience,” he explains in an interview with De Morgen.
“Putin would hold the economic switch”
As to last echoes from the front, they are rather worrying, according to the Defense specialist. He thus fears to see the Russians advancing towards the port city of Mykolaiv. “They would then control almost all access to the Black Sea and all Ukrainian exports by water. Putin would have the country’s economic switch in his hands,” he concludes.