2024-03-22 14:30:00
The conflict initiated in February 2022 in Ukraine not only caused significant upheavals in diplomatic relations, but also raised concerns about a possible nuclear escalation, quickly raised by several Russian political figures. In this context of permanent threat, what are France’s capabilities and what is its deterrent force worth?
2 years ago, on February 24, 2022, Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine. Faced with the support of European nations and NATO member countries for Ukraine, Putin announced on February 27 raise the alert level of Russia’s nuclear forces. In the process, Russia carried out posturing sending to the northern Atlantic Ocean some nuclear submarines, with the aim of sending a threatening message to NATO forces. A belligerent rhetoric aimed at Western countries and taken up by numerous figures in the Kremlin, from Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to thePress officerPress officer by Vladimir Putin, Dmitri Peskov. The latter has just affirmed for the first time that Russia was “in a state of war in Ukraine” while the Kremlin had tried since the beginning of the invasion to constantly use the expression “special military operation”.
To avoid any escalation, the United States immediately set up a direct line with the Kremlin in order to prevent any incident, while a test of missilemissile intercontinental ballistic missile Minuteman III was postponed on March 2, 2022, to finally be canceled on 1is avril. If the United States has had part of its arsenal on European territory since the Cold War, two countries in Western Europe have a nuclear strike force and deterrent: the United Kingdom and France . In recent weeks, members of Emmanuel Macron’s government have repeatedly recalled France’s nuclear capacity, in a dissuasive manner.
Navy and air forces: a shock trio
On February 24, 2022, Jean-Yves le Drian, Minister of Foreign Affairs, recalled on TF1 that NATO was also “a nuclear alliance”, in response to threatening statements from Vladimir Putin. If France has fewer deployed nuclear warheads than Russia (around 1,500 “active”) and the United States (1,300), its arsenal amounts to 280 warheads, plus 20 in reserve. They are divided between the Strategic Ocean Forces (FOSt) and the Strategic Air Forces (FAS). The FOSt, belonging to the national navy, has four submarinessubmarines nuclear launcherslaunchers of craft (SNLE) class “Le Triomphant”, named after the first device of this new generation of submarines made operational in 1997. Each SNLE (the Triomphant, the Vigilant, the Terrible, the Téméraire) is capable of since 2010, have hosted sixteen strategic sea-to-ground ballistic missiles (MSBS) M51M51. The technicality of the M51 is formidable. These missiles can supposedly reach an estimated target of 6,000 kilometers at a vitessevitesse of Mach 15 (19,000 km/h). Since 2016, the warheads can carry multiple ocean-going nuclear warheads (TNO), with one TNO having an estimated power of 100 kilotons (kT).
The Strategic Air Forces of the Armyairair are made up of several squadrons of Rafales, carrying improved medium-range air-to-ground missiles (ASMP-A) since the 2010s. Each missile contains an airborne nuclear warhead (TNA), which can travel 500 kilometers before hitting a target. The power of a TNA would be 300 kilotons. For comparison, the power of the bomb dropped on Hiroshima was “only” 15 kt. France has a third branch of its deterrence arsenal: the Nuclear Naval Air Force (FANu). Created in 1978, the FANu has provided support to the Rafales responsible for nuclear deterrence since the porteporte-Charles-de-Gaulle aircraft.
Deterrence as main weapon
The French nuclear force is said to be “dissuasive”, intended to discourage an enemy from carrying out an offensive against France. This strategy is part of the so-called “balance of terror” or “mutually assured destruction” doctrine, developed during the Cold War, when the United States and the Soviet Union began a veritable arms race. nuclear. The balance of terror has the following fact: if a nation with deterrent forces is attacked, it may be able to proportionately destroy the aggressor.
In the context of the war in Ukraine, which is rekindling geopolitical tensions with Russia, France continues to demonstrate the extent of its capabilities. The newspaper Air & CosmosCosmos revealed on March 17, 2022 that the French Navy had optimized the SSBN patrol cycle, thus making it possible to deploy three submarines in deep waters. In a logic of absolute discretion concerning the maneuvers of the deterrent forces, the information has neither been denied nor confirmed. On March 24, the Air Force tested a modernized version of an ASMP-A near Cazaux, in Gironde. Many experts have noted that, unlike the United States, France had chosen not to cancel the operation, planned for several months. With a return to the arms of ferfer diplomatic skills worthy of the Cold War, France is showing that it has lost none of its capabilities.
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