The dice will be cast next night, then we will know which talents will end up with which teams. We also played through the draft once with a mock.
It’s almost impossible to predict the order of a draft. Too many dominoes can fall on draw day, which is possibly the busiest day on the NBA calendar aside from the start of free agency.
And yet we all enjoy making predictions about which player will end up on which team. We are also trying this exercise again this year and have drawn up our own mock draft.
But first, a few words to explain the picks. It’s not about who the best players are, that’s why we have our big board with the best 25 players of the draft, but rather about putting yourself in the shoes of the GMs of the respective teams and deriving the plausible choice from that.
If you also want to take a closer look at the prospects, you can do so too. In the past few days we have taken a closer look at the best guards, forwards and bigs in the linked articles.
For the sake of clarity, we also do without trades. There will be, last year alone there were five in the first round on draft day. But now to our mock draft, which covers the first 30 picks.
Pick 1: ORLANDO MAGIC – Jabari Smith (PF, Auburn)
Not an easy pick for the Magic, who could really use a creating guard or forward. Instead, the top three prospects are all Big Men, which poses a complicated question for Magic. Do they take the best player available or the one that best fits the system?
The clear answer should always be the first variant in a rebuild, at the same time Smith fits in perfectly with Orlando’s style with his shooting and his defense. We also choose Smith because he seems to be the safer pick. But we don’t really feel comfortable with the choice.
Pick 2: OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER – Chet Holmgren (PF/C, Gonzaga)
This makes the decision easier for OKC. GM Sam Presti is known for his penchant for distance, and Holmgren fits that mold perfectly. With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey there is already enough playmaking, with Holmgren the required rim protector is now coming, which also has spacing as a bonus, which has been a big problem with the Thunder in recent years.
Pick 3: HOUSTON ROCKETS – Paolo Banchero (PF/C, Duke)
Stay for the Rockets Banchero, they won’t be sad about it. With the wood trade to Dallas, the Texans have already made room in the rotation. The rebuild should succeed with a core of Jalen Green, Banchero and Center Alperen Sengün. That’s a lot of offense (and very little defense), but Houston should have enough patience after many good years.
Pick 4: SACRAMENTO KINGS – Jaden Ivey (G, Purdue)
The Kings are very different. GM Monte McNair is entering his final year on the contract and Sacramento is still waiting for its first playoff appearance since 2006! With pressure mounting in the California capital, there is much speculation about a trade for a veteran player. In our scenario, however, the Kings remain conservative and take the best player off the board. Ivey and De’Aaron Fox together sounds difficult, but if in doubt, a trade can help later.
Pick 5: DETROIT PISTONS – A.J. Griffin (G/F, Duke)
Detroit had already drawn the main prize in Cade Cunningham last year, now it is important to support the playmaker in a meaningful way. There is a lot of catching up to do when it comes to shooting, which is why the Pistons choose Griffin, one of the best shooters in college. It’s equally an upside pick because Griffin’s medical record could be an issue. At the same time, he has star potential himself.
Pick 6: INDIANA PACERS – Keegan Murray (F, Iowa)
The Pacers are considered one of the more conservative franchises, even when it comes to drafting. The last time they went as high as this time was in 1988 (Rik Smits, No. 2). A forward would suit the Pacers, Murray offers two-way potential and could be a useful addition to Tyrese Haliburton.
Pick 7: PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS – Dyson Daniels (G, G-League Ignite)
Shortly before the draft, the Blazers already threaded the long-awaited deal with the trade for Jerami Grant, but they still kept their first-round pick. With this, a decision for Daniels could make sense. The guard has its advantages in defense and could relieve franchise star Damian Lillard a little.
Pick 8: NEW ORLEANS PELICANS (via Lakers) – Shaedon Sharpe (G/F, Kentucky)
Someone like Daniels would have looked good in New Orleans. At this point we take a risk for New Orleans and take the ultimate upside pick in Sharpe. At least one thing is pretty sure about Sharpe – and that’s that he can throw. The franchise can use that if you want to build a team around Zion Williamson.
Pick 9: SAN ANTONIO SPURS – JALEN DUREN (C, Memphis)
There are numerous rumors about Jakob Pöltl, which could indicate that San Antonio wants to draw the center of the future. Duren would be an option here and could fit well into Spurs’ system.
Fun fact about the Spurs: The Texans will pick in the top 10 for only the fifth time in their franchise history, so far they have always picked an upcoming All-Star (Alvin Robertson, David Robinson, Sean Elliott, Tim Duncan).
Pick 10: WASHINGTON WIZARDS – BENNEDICT MATHURIN (G/F, Arizona)
Washington is also considered a possible trade candidate, especially in the backcourt an upgrade could help. Failing that with a deal, Washington should be looking to Mathurin if Washington does in fact plan to use Bradley Beal (if he stays) as a point guard. The Canadian is a good shot, can create a little himself and has defensive potential.